Chat Archives
Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from 11/08/2005
Hello Everyone! We're a bit late due to "technical" difficulties, so let's get right to it! (Yes, we have coffee, cookies, cigars, and charts . . . .)
macaroni asks (6:22:11 PM):
What is the latest staus of Refco?
When you say "Refco," realize that "Refco" consists of many entities. KRC recommends Refco LLC (and that's where my account is --- as well as many WGB Members too). Refco LLC is NOT in bankruptcy and all client funds are held in secure, segregated accounts. As part of the Refco GROUP bankruptcy proceedings, Refco LLC is being auctioned by the bankruptcy court. All bids were due last Friday and the highest was nearly one BILLION dollars. The judge will make his ruling tomorrow. For the present, Refco LLC is continuing to do business as it always has. We will evaluate the situation after the new buyer is announced.
Happy 2b Here asks (6:27:48 PM):
Hi Ken! I've been paper trading options for 2 weeks now, mostly energies and currencies. Am in 11 markets using Tovi TT, the S1 signal. Am down $ -1,082.60, (4 winners 7 losers) half of which is commission figured at $50 per option. The options with commission costs I hold are worth $12,998. I don't have that kind of money to get started for real and am wondering what my best strategy is. Although I'm just paper trading should I be considering using the full featured Tovi Online vs the Tovi TT?
I'd say "Absolutely! Use TOVI Online" because of its powerful option search feature and "red" rapid decay warning. Continue to paper trade two or three accounts (which you can do on TOVI Online), including one with just the amount of real money you're considering beginning with. Then analyze those results to make your decision. Good going, Happy 2b Here!
steve whitcomb asks (6:29:15 PM):
Hi I just joined. when on a tight budget, is it good to have multiple small trades going or go after just one that looks like it should breakout soon?
Hello and welcome, Steve! Paper trade these two approaches and let THEM reveal which is better for YOU! Keep us posted! Thanks.
Mike asks (6:32:10 PM):
When buying options, it may take a very long time for the Strong1 and previous moderate to appear on TOVI. What other method, if any, do you use in entering options. thanks Mike
That particular strategy, Mike, actually occurs quite often (typically several times a week). And remember that there are two other trading strategies you can paper trade also to stay active in the markets. (These are listed in the KRC Member Center at www.kenroberts.com) Let us know how you're doing, Mike! Thanks.
O.J. Climber asks (6:34:49 PM):
I know you hate fundamental analysis but after 8 years of technical trading your way I had the following thoughts-1)If a crop is threatened by a hurrican like O.J.; then why not simply buy some cheap $200-300 calls 15 or 25 cents out of the money and hope to get a 30-100% move? It is kinda like your old fishing strategy.
Yes, O.J.! Try it on paper and see the results! (There have been so darn many hurricanes lately, I can't remember which is which, but check your charts and option history and you'll see that the hurricane news typically did NOT send the orange juice market up in limit moves as you would think . . . .
B Giner asks (6:38:34 PM):
Hi Ken! I'm relatively new to options trading. I've been paper trading for about a year but I've only made one real transaction. I need some help recognizing resistance. I tend to look at a chart and think i am seeing a permanent change in direction. am I movining to quickly? How can I tell the differnce between resistance and a true change in direction?
First of all, B Giner, the TOVI Trend Tracker at www.uschartco.com tells you exactly when a trend occurs and/or changes. Otherwise, just keep at it until you get a good "feel" for charting and how prices move. It takes a little patience, but within a month you'll be boring all your friends with your charting expertise!
steve whitcomb asks (6:38:52 PM):
I can't see anything, am I doing something wrong??
Can you see me now, Steve?
Dee in Idaho asks (6:51:35 PM):
Hi Ken and all, Thank you for being so helpful and concerned for our success. How hard is it to liquidate an in the money option? Is it wise to liquidate it while the premium is still below the futures's margin price? I am only cents away from being in the money in a copper option and it is already above the margin price. Is there anyone who will pay that much for it? I have found that trying to exit a option position is much more difficult(for real) than it is on paper. Trying to get my price with a limit order has proved difficult and in retro, it would have been cheaper to place a market order, what is the solution? Thanks
First of all, Dee, margin on futures contracts has nothing to do with options. Second, an in-the-money option should be easy to liquidate, and if you've had problems liquidating options using limit orders (which I recommend), this is where a good broker comes in. He or she should "work" that order for you to get you your best price. (Occasionally, the exchanges do not accept limit orders and only take market orders, and that's just life. But avoid market orders whenever possible . . . .) Hope this helps. Thanks!
Lucy asks (6:53:26 PM):
Do you ever write naked calls or puts?
No. What TOVI teaches is "covered" option writing. (A "naked" put or call subjects you to UNlimited risk . . . .)
George asks (6:54:46 PM):
Ken and dedicated team, I just want to thank you once again for the superb trading camp this past weekend. I did re-learn the basics and was exposed to the new in such an easy way, Jim and Louie are awsome, not only that but the food was yummi and plenty of it, I felt so welcome that it was hard to leave. God bless.
Hi George! Everyone says "Hi!" Krista's here, Louie's here, and Big Jim's here too! (They're reading your "awesome" comment out loud right now, over and over . . . .) Did you find yourself in the pictures I posted?
Mike R. asks (6:56:05 PM):
How long do you recommend paper trading before jumping into the real deal? Mike, Tacoma, Washington
Glad you asked, Mike! You should paper trade until you find yourself saying "I'm tired of being right and not making any money on it!" a LOT!
jdltrade asks (6:59:31 PM):
Ken- Thankyou for the cones. Sometimes they seem to jump up and whack us. But thats when I look at them. I realy appreaciate the mentoring. I have done some of that and will do much more as I make funds to do those things that need to be done. I wonder how many know the value of David Hawkins (among others) work. I am delighted that you are pointing the ways for many people. Lately I have been learning to relax when trading with " real" money. I love your armchair style of trading. At some point when I have made gobs of money I want to meet with others to do projects. are there people or groups of people who would like to make (fun) difference? thankyou.
Thank YOU, jdltrade! Oh yes, they're out there, and you'll just naturally gravitate when the time's right! You can also meet like-minded others here at our Trading Camps too. Yes, ignore those Orange Cones! Stay in touch . . . .
CHARTECH: asks (7:03:40 PM):
Ken I did not get to hear your live broadcast on the radio station any chance you have it hid any where we may be able to hear it. Thanks for all you and your staff do for all of us and HAPPY THANKSGIVING to all.
Thanks CHARTECH! We were promised that that (great!) interview will be archived at www.geniuscatalyst.com within two weeks. (Wish it were sooner --- I haven't heard it either!!!)
choice, Atlanta GA asks (7:04:37 PM):
I am concerned with not Knowing the terms used in trading, will the broker be any help or not?
Yes, of course, you should expect your broker to help you along, but you WILL have a good working knowledge of all important trading terms just by taking the WGB Course itself. Thanks for joining us this evening!
WGM asks (7:06:07 PM):
Hi Ken, I'm new at this business, so new as a matter of fact I don't even have any questions, I just want to say Hello and watch what others have to say. wgm
(Does WGM stand for World's Greatest Moneymaker?) Welcome aboard, WGM, and chime in when you're ready.
sabrena asks (7:06:53 PM):
Hi Ken, This question is pertaining to options. Do you ALWAYS use Tovi's Value Factor when considering the purchase of an option? Thankn you very much! Sabrena
YES! Sabrena! TOVI's the greatest!
choice asks (7:07:41 PM):
Hi Ken, I started reading the guide to gain enough to start trading for the first time. I have not talked to a broker yet, should I try to paper trade without a broker?
Shop for your broker now, develop a relationship with him or her WHILE you're paper trading! Good question, Choice!
funkyp asks (7:09:19 PM):
Hello Ken,Do you ever just take your money and run? Sometimes the plan doesn't come through, but a small profit could be taken if you sell. Do you ever do that?
I've learned to stick to my plan, funkyp. It's when we start "tweaking" that plan midstream that things go awry . . . .
sacktime asks (7:10:54 PM):
My wife and I are just starting to reread your manual we got some 6 years ago and just now have the time and money to really get into this thing. Wish we had started then. To say the least we are sorry we didn't start this thing then. How long would you recomend us to paper trade?
Hi Sacktime and Mrs. Sacktime --- welcome! Please see my response to "Mike R." . . . .
fred from sd asks (7:11:55 PM):
fred from sd; Ken do you always go by the front month to make trading decisions? Thanks
I USED to, fred. Now I use the Active Futures Month, which you'll find on the TOVI Trend Tracker at www.uschartco.com. This now is the contract month used by all charting services to create weekly and monthly charts.
Cotton is in a bear asks (7:13:21 PM):
Is corn in a base?
That's not a base, bear market, it's in a downtrend and making new #1 bottom points. But keep watching for that base to form . . . .
Greg E asks (7:14:48 PM):
Ken, I purchased your manual about 6 years ago. Very little was written on options, now that is your focus. Has your trading philosophy changed?
Yes, Greg, when I began trading back in '83, there were virtually NO options. Then, as the years have gone by, the option markets have been growing exponentially. Options are the "great equalizer" and I feel it's imperative that all traders realize their power and potential. Good question. Welcome back!
greg in arizona asks (7:16:51 PM):
Hi Ken, Is the WGB course quite different from TWMPMM I and II? Thanks, and take care.
Yes, Greg, it is quite different because so much has happened in the markets, and I've learned even more since then. Thank you!
CHARTECH: asks (7:17:24 PM):
Great halloween pictures. I new elvis was still around. I love The Worlds Greatest Business pumpkin and the M&M very creative. Great stuff.
Yes, we have some very creative people around here! (Did you find the "leaf blower"?)
Art asks (7:18:30 PM):
ArtRedding CaliforniaI am a new member, and abysmally ignorant about commodities, but anxious to get strted. How should I look for a broker--yellow pages?
Read the "Names & Numbers to Know" sheet and the "Get Going!" guide featured in the WGB Member Center at www.kenroberts.com. Welcome aboard, Art!
treepartner asks (7:19:24 PM):
Hi Ken Krista and all! It has been crazily hectic here. Hope all is well with you. Hoping for a trip to OR next month.
Alright --- we'll be looking forward to that! Thanks!
KelownaRob asks (7:20:02 PM):
I'm already boring my friends with 'chart talk' hahaha...if I get really good at this..can I apply for a job with your company...??
When you really "get good" at this, KelownaRob, you won't need a job at my company!
wstapleton asks (7:21:56 PM):
Hi Ken...With the advent of Tovi, isn't it better to use this software....rather than the techniques used in Advanced Commodity Trading Techniques....I Love all of the features with Tovi...not sure about ACTT....
There's no conflict, wstapleton. TOVI is simply a tool to use with ANY trading strategy you prefer. A lot of traders use these two together. (In fact, using both in conjunction is one module of our Trading Camps . . . .)
Sgt. Tom asks (7:23:06 PM):
Ken, I wanted to tell you "Thanks" for the opportunity. Just signed up for the Apprentice cours. You make the course fun. Sgt. Tom from Groves, TX
It IS fun, Sgt. Tom! Thanks, and welcome aboard! Please stay in touch. (Hey, what kind of cowboy hat do you wear there in Texas?)
sagebrush asks (7:25:30 PM):
if a 1 2 3 develops indicating the trend is going to change do you wait for the trend tracker to tell you when the trend has changed ?
Oh yes, sagebrush, now that I have TOVI's powerful tool on the U.S. CHARTS website, I let Trend Tracker CONFIRM that this formation does, indeed, show a change in trend. (Hey, sagebrush, what kind of hat do YOU wear?)
Bud asks (7:26:56 PM):
When is your next trading camp?
Our December Trading Camp sold out in two days, and we're doing another in January, but that date hasn't yet been set. Call a Course Counselor tomorrow and get on the list now to be assured of a space. Hope to see you here in Grants Pass soon, Bud! Thanks.
tacodog asks (7:28:31 PM):
Ken, read the " Trading Rule That Can Make You Rich" book, and have been using those techniques for about 3 months paper trading. It's just unbelievable how often these principals work and how often the market does retrace. Still have'nt traded this system with real money yet as I'm still fine tuning it, but it seems this really falls into a contrarians bag of tricks.If any beginners are out there that were as confused as I was about 50 % retracements, you gotta read this book, It sure would have helped in those early days. How about you Ken? How often do you implement them?
I LIVE by them, tacodog! That was the very same book I found early on in my own learning/trading the futures markets. Yes, it IS a classic. (By the way, success IS contrarian . . . .)
bfree asks (7:32:28 PM):
bfree in Houston -Hello, Ken & crew. Thanks for all the great tools!I'm having fun -not making my fortune yet, but I'm at the plate swinging! How did you develope patience?
Exactly right, bfree! Trading is MOSTLY psychological, and patience IS an INWARD skill. Practice leads to patience! I also recommend the "trading psychology" booklet we add and include with every New Market Wizards book at Four Star Books.
fred from sd asks (7:33:37 PM):
fred from sd again;; Do most brokers give discounts if a person deals in several contracts on the same option; say a person bought 5 instead of one all on the exact same thing?
He or she should, fred, and make sure you ASK!!! Remember: It's YOUR money!
WGM asks (7:33:55 PM):
I love it Ken, WGM is my initials, but now it will stand for World's Greatest Moneymaker. Thanks, WGM
!
commerce boy asks (7:35:29 PM):
Hi. Ken. The best thing I ever did was to get your rich man's secretcourse with the power of phycho pictography. The 2nd best is WGB course. I have not got it all figured out yet but, when I do I'm sureI'll have some questions. Thanks again for the life changing info.
You're welcome, commerce boy. And when you DO "get it all figured out", you won't have any questions any longer! (By the way, you'll LOVE my new Ultimate Technique for Success Course . . . .)
ChrisM asks (7:37:59 PM):
How is the active Trading Month determined?
Generally, the Active Futures Month is the contract with the highest Open Interest and highest Volume. Again, you'll find the Active Futures Month of any market on the Trend Tracker at www.uschartco.com.
mikedu4 asks (7:40:30 PM):
I remember you've said to never trust all the formulas others try to "sell", like things about Elliott Waves and Fibinocci. Why, then, is TOVI different and better? Why should we trust TOVI but not even listen to the others?
TOVI's not "a system." It's based upon the Nobel Prize-winning Black-Sholes model which is what the exchanges themselves use to establish option prices. TOVI actually goes BEYOND Black-Sholes! Great question, mikedu4. Thanks.
choice, Atlanta GA asks (7:41:27 PM):
I am a mail carrier, does trading require most of the morning hours to be effective in winning and earning?
Not necessarily, choice! You'd be surprised at when, how, and where different people trade! (How 'bout it, everyone: Got some input here?)
optionpeddler asks (7:42:31 PM):
Ken, Got the Ted Warren book recently from Four Star Books, and can't believe how much this classic book still applies to the market today! Do you believe Mr. Warren would still be trading by using his same methods today if he were still alive?
Absolutely, optionpeddler!
KelownaRob asks (7:43:55 PM):
What the heck is TWMPMM???? (I'm very new here.)
It's my very first Course, KelownaRob. It's an acronym for The World's Most Powerful Money Manual and is pronounced "twampum", as in "wampum" . . . .
Dan in Dallas asks (7:44:37 PM):
Dear Ken,I'm visiting tonight as I just sign up for the WGB course like about two weeks ago. I also subscribe to tovi for the last 18 months. I am learning how to buy options and sell options. Paper trading is whereI'm at right now and it looks good. Thanks for your training.
You're welcome, Dan in Dallas! (What kind of hat do you wear there in Dallas?)
TWMPMM asks (7:50:52 PM):
Ken,I am a new member, but I did subscribe to your TWMPMM course for a short time about ten years ago and also to your chart service when you would send out the paper version each week. I have been working with your U.S. Charts Co. Online Service lately and find that I miss the days when you would work with a pencil and a ruler (and for some, the magnifier) to draw the lines and figure support and resistance and 50%, etc. While the computer is great to keep track of your trades (paper or otherwise) and your great proprietary feature, TOVI Trend Tracker, do you do all of your charting on the computer, or do you still work with paper and pencil?
(Yes, TWMPMM, I'm using that magnifier more and more nowadays too!) Paper charts, red pen, and straight edge for me too!!!
Happy 2b Here asks (7:53:25 PM):
Got a couple of questions about the Ultimate Technique for Success, aka UTS. I'm planning on buying it this week. Has it been converted to CDs and DVDs? Is the Roundtable part of the program online or on the phone? And, finally - Anyone on the chat tonite that has tried it and has a comment? Thanks!
We're presently coverting to DVDs, Happy 2b Here, but they're not quite ready, so it's still (old-fashioned) VHS! Yes, the Live Private RoundTable Meetings are online each month (soon to be a live, online radio call-in show format, however!!!!). How 'bout it: Any other UTS Members out there tonight? Let's hear from you too . . . .
George asks (7:54:26 PM):
Hi I just joined last week and as I was going through the charts I noticed that the futures contract prices change from one contract to the next. Are the options all tied to specific futures contracts or can a farther out option be tied to a closer futures contract?
The month of your option corresponds to that futures contract month. For example, December Corn calls are options on December Corn futures contracts. Thanks George!
stephanie_in_tn asks (7:57:07 PM):
Hi Ken,I have noticed that the overnight markets seem to be very volatile. Why is that and do you just ignore these swings? I've been on the lucky end of the swings lately, but I get antsy and usually end up taking the money and running, which I find gets me out of the game too soon. Thanks so much,Stephanie
I don't trade the "overnight" markets, Stephanie, and they're volatile because they're so "thin" --- that is, so many fewer traders than the major "day" markets. (Do you also like base jumping?)
Steve Whitcomb asks (7:58:41 PM):
Are you a Pilot? I see a couple of referances.
Yes, Steve. (And I did a dead-stick landing on the I-10 in Kerville, Texas in a Mooney!)
don asks (7:59:46 PM):
Ken, In a market that is in level 1, like corn is now,would you be shopping for calls now or wait until tovi indicates a trend change?
Those are two different strategies, Don. Paper trade both and see which you prefer . . . . Let us know!
ecInJapan asks (8:00:32 PM):
I trade from Japan, so time is definitely NOT a factor. My broker is in the U.S.
Thanks ec!
ChrisM asks (8:01:08 PM):
Trading timeI am using market close price as my decision maker.All my paper trading takes place between 10 - 11 PM with a quick 5min call to my broker at REFCO in the morning.
Thanks ChrisM!
Dan from asks (8:01:49 PM):
I wear a Black Wool Cowboy type...Most the time.
Thanks!
snagglepuss asks (8:02:09 PM):
Ken, I usually call my broker about 5 minutes after his ofice opens, he says it's a little slower at that time. For me it just seems to be a bit more relaxed than calling later on, it also gives a little more time to talk, which was great when I was developing a relationship with him
Thanks!
Cotton is in a bear asks (8:02:23 PM):
Hey Ken,When are your new 50% Retracement DvD's comingout?Thanks
REAL soon now --- I promise!
KelownaRob asks (8:04:06 PM):
As I am new to all of this (and obviously very excited, I remember hearing of you in the real estate business...are you still involve with that as well??
No, I don't buy and sell foreclosure properties any longer, KelownaRob, but good memory! Commodities is a LOT better than knocking on doors!
O.J. Climber asks (8:06:16 PM):
Where can I get a rendering of me surrounded by symbols of oil derricks, coffee beans, oranges, soybeans, silver?....I think I'll have a portrait drawn up of me someday surrounded by such items like you have done...
That famous artist is a Course Member, O.J. Climber! Just find a good graphic artist and tell 'em what you want! (By the way, check out the latest photo we just posted today for our next Chat Photo Caption Contest. I know you'll like it . . . .
Cotton is in a bear asks (8:07:57 PM):
Hey Ken!Do you use RSI (Relative Strength Index)? If you do, which average to you use? I use a 7 day.
No, I don't Cotton to RSI!
traceymouse asks (8:09:21 PM):
TWMPMM - I love those paper charts, too, and use both paper and computer for my trading. Ken, how about bringing back the pretty rainbow colored chart covers for the paper charts?
They are full-color covers, traceymouse? Do you remember a particular design you liked?
KelownaRob asks (8:09:49 PM):
Thanks, Ken , for your patience with my MANY questions tonight, and for taking the time to answer a few of them. I feel a real sense of 'hope'for my future since recieving your mailer and responding to it. Your manual, inspiring writings in the library, and your obvious warm and personal interest are indeed the sort of thing all of us new-comers are looking for ...and definately deliver!! MANY THANKS!!!
You're welcome, KelownaRob! Glad to be here too!
mudman asks (8:10:08 PM):
Hi Ken Have taken all your courses, and these last two days have been going over the UTS tapes. They're priceless. Really like your Chats, here and the UTS one. Thanks for all you do.
Thank YOU, mudman! Come see us when you can!
krispy kreme asks (8:11:00 PM):
David from Houston. Just wanted to let you know, I'm still around. No need for the box of Krispy Kremes when I open my set of charts! Thanks for your Internet Inspirations last week on HealthyLife!
Hello David! That was a great show, wasn't it? Glad you joined in too!
stephanie_in_tn asks (8:14:36 PM):
Hi again Ken,Regarding the overnight markets, how can you not trade them? Are you saying you just ignore the overnight trading?I do have a flair for the extreme, but not base jumping :)Thanks,Stephanie
No, I don't trade the overnight markets, Stephanie. They are a completely separate market from those we trade in the day (and involve different exchanges).
Well that's it for another month. Check out my favorite web sites: www.tovionline.com (Have you taken my personal tour yet?); www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com ; www.historictrees.org ; www.billoreilly.com ; www.wildlifeimages.org ; www.salestax.org (Let's abolish the IRS!); www.LP.org (Take The World's Smallest Political Quiz and see where you stand!); www.VOTE.com (Make your voice heard!). My next chat will be Tuesday, December 13th. As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night, God bless, and watch where you step!
« Back to Chat Archives
|
|
