Chat Archives
Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from 05/02/2006
As we begin this evening's session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It's not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your TWMPMM Manual. That's what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I've got a Dominican Arturo Fuente "Between the Lines" (try to find one!) fired up, here's our plate of freshly baked Ranger Cookies, the coffee's poured, so let's talk commodities!
yodaddy asks (6:16:48 PM):
What market(s) are you loading up on right now? Thanks!
Take a look at a Euroyen chart (actually, its daily, weekly, and monthly) --- THAT's what I call a "look to load up" market, yodaddy!
Ripley asks (6:20:47 PM):
Ripley from PAGood evening Ken and team. Just wanted to say hello and let you know that first up I really learned so much from the 50% dvd. Ken - thanks especially for explaining what Eurodollars/Yen actually are. I've been papertrading since joining in Jan 06 - as of yesterday I'm now up by over $12,000 (down by about $800). I can't/won't trade without TOVI and my charts - they have personally for me been the instruments of my success (my early losses have been my doing from not having a exit planned out in advance of the trade but I learned fast). I've got a couple of questions: when do you think the Euroyen dvd will be ready and if you still plan on offering a Premium Alert Service and are there any other new products in the pipeline? Thanks for everything Warm regards Ripley
Thanks Ripley, and welcome aboard this evening! Sounds like you're doing great . . . .
I'm working on the "My Favorite Market Now" DVD this very moment, and that's what I'll announce first. Then, I'll let you know what's next in the pipeline . . . .
And speaking of my favorite market now, here's a Sneak Preview . . . .
LetsGoCoffee! asks (6:22:54 PM):
Hi Ken! Been sucessfully trading the Long Term Position system with futures and no stop losses. After reading the Dobson book that came with your great 50% Retracement DVD I came up with an idea for entering the markets without waiting out the dip. Once a market is low wait for a 1-2-3 breakout. Then enter the market on a 50% retracement of the breakout and the #1 point. Should the #1 point prove not to hold one could exit the market and wait for the next opportunity. It might cut down on the back up cash needed. What do you think? Thanks for everything you do!!!!!
Sounds like a good plan to me! (Now the trick is to stick to your plan, and not let your big brain barge in and wreck that plan!) Keep us posted!
Mickeyite asks (6:29:11 PM):
Hi Ken. Mike in Salem here. Are there any books at Four Star that have the COMPLETE history charts for all of the markets (as far back as they go)? With so many markets hitting so high, I would like to know the all time tops in some, not just back to 1981. Thanks, Mickeyite
Nothing at Four Star Books, Mickeyite, because the ULTIMATE resource for what you're requesting is Commodity Research Bureau's (CRB) YEARBOOK. I order one of these annually and refer to them often. Again, it IS the ULTIMATE! Click on (or paste) this link:
http://www.crbtrader.com/fund/default.asp
I've been ordering these since I first began trading in 1983! (Did you know you could trade arsenic, rubber, and cheese? Now you will . . . !
Dee asks (6:31:15 PM):
Hi Ken and Company Just to share - - I was very fortunate a year ago Easter to attend one of Dr. Hawkin's seminars. Since that time I have read his book daily, to keep my energy level a little higher. I just purchased the CDs during 4-Star books BIG sale. I am truly amazed, the energy feels very similar to the energy I felt during the seminar. They are definately worth their weight in Gold Futures! Thank you for that great sale! Have you ever heard of the Sedona Method (The Relese Technique?) It is a very helpful tool when used in conjuction with Dr Hawkin's work. I have a list of ctitera that I use before calling my broker and I use Dr. Hawkin's tecnique. Basically, it goes like this, "This is a good trade based on my personal and Ken's criteria?" If I go weak I missed something and recheck the trade. I have found it very effective. Thank you all.
Thank you Dee --- great insights, and thanks for the good advice too! (Hey everyone: Don't miss out on Four Star Books' biggest-ever sale . . . .
trwtrader asks (6:35:03 PM):
Ken,OJ made a new high today. Based on the HI-LO breakout strategy do agree that an order to go long is order for tomorrow or was the break above the high too extreme to enter a trade? Thanks.
OJ CLOSED ABOVE its old high today, so yes, tomorrow's the day, trwtrader! Good eye . . . !
eddy asks (6:37:28 PM):
Hi Ken, Silver looks like it may be forming a 1-2-3. If it does come down now, do you think the other metals would follow soon?Also, would you short these markets with futures, options, or both? God be with you, Eddy
Silver's made a #1 and a #2 point, but no #3 YET, eddy. I don't know if the other metals will follow --- treat every market on its own. As far as futures, options, or both, I can't answer that for you --- that's the benefit of practicing on paper first: to get a "feel" for what's right for you. And let us know what you find out about yourself! Great insights . . . .
Andrew from Pacific asks (6:40:37 PM):
Hello Ken, What is your favorite beverage you like to have with your cigars? Do you think oil will go down or will it go down and then go higher?
Nothing goes with cigars like my favorite: Cafe Altura!
http://www.cafealtura.com/
EVERY MARKET moves in 50% Retracements, Andrew.
andy abbett asks (6:45:25 PM):
Hey Ken and Jim! I was at your very first UTS seminar and wanted to say thanks for the info and great time that I had- sorry I wasn't able to join youfor last month's chat to thank you- I was out of town. I'm giving out "gold coins" and avoiding the "orange cones" as best I can and I'm trying to practice those and the other principles as much as possible. I also had the great pleasure of being able to have a one-on-one session with Jim last week and it was very helpful with my paper trading- I'm already having July OJ go according to plan and July Sugar looks as though it may do the same very soon. Anyway- thanks again. I'll be in touch.
Thank you, andy abbett --- good for you! And please keep us posted on all those COINcidences that come your way now!
Bll in NC asks (6:47:30 PM):
Ken, thank you so much for the ACTT course and Ted Warrens book. I now approach markets with confidence and am CALM. I no longer sweat it!! My own thinking is I'll be right 80% of the time or better if I do what he teaches.Thanks again.
Don't you wish you could just have a "sit-down" with Ted Warren?! That would be great!
Gary from Fairhope asks (6:51:29 PM):
Ken, this is my first commodities chat. I've got my South Alabama roast and sweet potatoes ready and looking forward to some informative conversation.
Man, Gary, quit talkin' like that! (We went to Taco Bell tonight . . . .) We'll be out your way about mid-June --- landing at Fairhope Municipal (4R4), so we'll be meetin' you at the Waffle House for grits, Jimmy Dean sausage, pecan waffles, and eggs over easy!!! (Oh, and welcome to your first commodities chat, Gary! Hello to Sharon too!)
Bama Jack asks (6:52:19 PM):
Hi,Ken Hope things are well with you in the Great State of Oregon.I've learned a lot in the past couple of months since signing on with WGB.Thanks a lots.Whats your thinking on gold now after today high.Im still kicking myself for missing this run. Bama Jack
(Hey, what's with Alabama tonight?! We're on our way . . . .) Don't chase Gold, Bama Jack --- it'll retrace!
Mickeyite asks (6:52:52 PM):
Thank you Ken for the link to the CRB Yearbook! I looked high and low...even called US Charts! This will help me a great deal! Thanks again, Mickeyite
You'll LOVE the CRB Yearbook, Mickeyite! You're welcome . . . !
Dee asks (6:54:17 PM):
Hi again, I forgot to add my question. When you call your broker, do you allow the assistant to take your order or do you wait for the availability of your broker.
I always speak with my broker, Dee --- and then let him/her talk to the assistant!
Barry asks (6:55:28 PM):
Ken,I've rejoined you.Took your course even before you were forced onto the computer and believe you were still in Ojai, CA. It's good to be back. My question is how stop orders in some markets such as lumber can be subject to slippage, yet not in others? Thanks
Thanks Barry! And welcome back! It all has to do with the floor traders and how "liquid" a market is. This is why I always use "limit orders" whenever possible --- either it's filled or it's not!
gittin thar asks (6:56:12 PM):
Albany,N>Y> Ken, you use the active month to enter a trade; do you also use it to watch for signals to exit, or do you use the contract month you're in?
I keep my eye only on the Active Futures Month and take all my cues from it! Thanks!
Tbear asks (7:01:28 PM):
Oh Great! Now I've got to wait to see what market your're talking about in your "My Favorite Market Now" DVD..... just great! It will pass me by again..... *grabs my paper charts again..... :-)
Come on Tbear --- don't be negative! You need a good, positive attitude! (Besides, I haven't even finished editing my newest DVD yet!) Stay tuned (and stay positive)!
happy in n.c. asks (7:01:58 PM):
ken, in the metals and orange juice. loving this market enviroment.what about the oj today? how far can these metals go?
Yes, now you're seeing some markets in action! Exciting, isn't it?!
poorBoy-- asks (7:05:15 PM):
Saw CD$ break through 20 years of resistance in past few days...Q? Should I be looking at puts or following a break-out method....or both? a little confused on what to do...
Okay, you missed the Hi-Lo Breakout Strategy in the Canadian Dollar, but now watch for a 1-2-3 top formation and/or 50% Retracement. Just watch it every day now and LEARN how a market moves, RichMan!
Mr. Ed asks (7:18:21 PM):
Hi Ken and all, during the April chat you said that the 50% retracement rule is NOT an ENTRY strategy. However, in the book the author always used the 50% retracements as ENTRY points. Can you clarify this for me? I don't have the 50% DVD yet so maybe I'm missing something.
Hi Mr. Ed! Yes, that's the author's --- another Ed: Ed Dobson --- strategy. Give it a paper-trading try (and let us know how it works out for you)!
LetsGoCoffee! asks (7:20:06 PM):
With just 7 contracts my family and I banked $40K when OJ hit the monthly retracement at 137.00. Thanks to your teachings I am able to think about early retirement. I have also been able increase my charitable contributions. Spreadin' the love! Thank you Ken!
Yes you are, Coffee, and thanks for letting us know!
Gary from Fairhope asks (7:22:41 PM):
Ken,Since joining your WGB website three weeks ago, I tried one of your strategies for options on several markets and liquidated everything with more than a 37% return yesterday. I had an exit strategy and stuck with it on all trades but one. When the market went against me, I panicked and liquidated at a loss only to purchase a call option the next day for the same commodity. Are options easy to liquidate? Thanks for everything! Weather is great in Fairhope!
Thanks again Gary! Yes, with open interest growing in options in leaps and bounds, it's easier and easier to liquidate options. (There were NO options when I began trading commodities in 1983!)
JohnO asks (7:24:25 PM):
John'O from UtahKen this is my first chat. I've been paper trading for a few monthsand if I had traded money instead of paper!!!!! Maybe the fog haslifted and I can get started for real. I really have enjoyed the experience. Keep it coming!
Thanks, and congratulations, JohnO. (Now although paper trading is HELPful, it's NOT the same as when your real money is on the line. So proceed confidently, but cautiously!) And please update us on your progress.
Michael asks (7:25:33 PM):
Hello Ken, I have been trading now for almost one year have done very well in Sugar, and presently in Silver, Crude and OJ, What a course, what a business!. You are so right when you call the best business in the world, it's truly amazing. My plan includes becoming a full time trader and resigning from my career in property management within the next six months. My question: the Japanese market will be closed for the next three days, what effect has that had on our (Canadian/US) markets in previous years? Thank you, Michael
You know, Michael, this year is the ONLY year I've been aware of the week-long holidays in Japan. So I have no experience/opinion on this. I guess we'll all find out!
stlucia1 asks (7:27:30 PM):
Hello Ken, I have read your manual about 10 years ago and I am in the process of reading your current manual. When buying options and if they increase in value, does that build up equity in the trading account that allows you to buy more options as does purchasing commodity (futures) contracts? Thank you. Stephen
No, Stephen, we are NOT allowed to spend our open option profits as we are in futures contracts. (And no one's ever offered me a good reason why . . . .)
Tom asks (7:29:26 PM):
Regarding buying a quantity of option contracts. . . If I have $5000 to invest, is it wise to purchase 2 contracts worth $2500/ea or 1 contract worth $5000? I.E do thier values rise linearly?
Tom, I have no pat answer to your question (and I'm not sure if there is one right answer). But try this: Go to www.ToviOnline.com and paper trade SEVERAL strategies as you've listed here in your question and see what you learn.
Wayne in Washington asks (7:30:27 PM):
Hi Ken. I had a copper option and took profits too early. Now I'm wondering if it's worth getting back in if it sets itself up for another high break out? Or would that be just chasing the market?
No, another Hi-Lo Breakout wouldn't be chasing the market. But DO have an entry strategy (and exit strategy) before you begin again. (Also realize: You can't lose money taking profits!)
Mickeyite asks (7:34:01 PM):
Hi Ken. Mike in Salem here. How about a link for a good selection of cigars? Do you have a cigar lounge down there? Thanks, Mickeyite
Hey Mickeyite! Haven't you been around my website at www.KenRoberts.com?! There's a link to THE BEST non-Cuban cigars you can get listed in the "Chat Essentials" section: www.jrcigars.com. Happy shopping!
poorBoy-- asks (7:36:14 PM):
Do you see Live Cattle an Feeder Cattle as both forming a 1-2-3 bottom on the daily? Just wondering if you agree? ....thanks
I see a 1-2-3 bottom forming in June Live Cattle, but NOT in Feeder Cattle (see that old low in July?). By the way, do you know the difference between Live and Feeder Cattle? Feeder Cattle's alive (and being fattened), and Live Cattle's dead . . . .
Tigger_T_Bounce asks (7:38:29 PM):
Hello Ken & Krista & Co. ..... Question on using US Charts and TOVI ... do you prefer charts first then Tovi to back up the formation or vis ' versa ?
Hello Tigger! For me, it's paper charts first, then the tools on TOVI (with a cigar and coffee, of course)!
Ralph asks (7:39:22 PM):
When setting up to trade do you need charting software and if so what would you recommend?
Nope, Ralph: I write my plans on my charts, then talk to my broker.
poorBoy-- asks (7:44:55 PM):
Hi Ken and Gang...was looking for OJ to form a 1-2-3- top, but it looks like it broke ou today on the high side. Finding it hard to be a contrarian as it just broke thru 14 years of resisitance (monthly chart). Question is, should we look at the next point of resistance ( i.e. 175 on the monthly) for a top to form? My Puts are running out of juice!
What goes up WILL come down, poorBoy, but you'll have to decide if the time remaining on your put options warrants waiting awhile longer for OJ to correct and/or reverse.
tanker asks (7:50:39 PM):
I am considering purchasing a call option in sugar? what is your feeling about this?
Sugar's sitting at annual highs, tanker, so it could go either way. I'd be ready with a Hi-Lo Breakout for the upside and a 1-2-3 Top Formation for a drop in Sugar prices. So my answer is: Sugar could go up, or it could go down! (Hey! This qualifies me to have a national radio talk show just like Bob Brinker!)
Tbear asks (7:51:59 PM):
Hi Ken! I've taken most of the courses you've offered over the years, but never had the funds to begin trading. Things have changed and I'm ready to begin paper trading again. What should I do to refresh myself? By the way, I just love the your web site and all of it's features!
Thanks Tbear! Sit down with a set of price charts and start marking them up! Then update them every day and watch prices unfold. And that's it!
happy in n.c. asks (7:57:38 PM):
the grains are still down low! do you think they will ever move. i am waiting on them. they are at bottoms. maybe they willbe on the next run. with the biodisel and ethonyl talk -- what do you think?
That's EXACTLY the right thinking, happy! Now, stay with the grain charts every day and don't let them take off and surprise you! Good goin'!
Andrew from Pacific asks (8:02:12 PM):
Hey Ken, I knew markets moved in 50% retracements but I was thinking that the recent demand and supply problems would make the oil market react differently and in turn would have you making an exception. I should have known better. Thanks!
Nope --- no exceptions, Andrew! EVERYTHING that moves moves in 50% Retracements (even the FIXED stock indices)! Get out your charts and see what I mean . . . .
CHIEF asks (8:06:35 PM):
Hi Ken, talking about a sit down with Ted Warren or using the teachings of Dr. Hawkins or The Rich Man Secret, makes me think about my late father (another man from the "Greatest Generation". Although he did not trade his thinking was Solid, it seemed to come natural. Where as I am always struggling with it. Do you think it comes more natural to some people? Why? Thanks again for your time and commitment.
Hello CHIEF --- welcome, and thank you! Yes, it seems that some people are more "comfortable" with the world and events than others, but that doesn't stop us from learning and advancing! After all, we can only work with what we've got!
Cali Copper asks (8:07:27 PM):
Hey Ken I first got into this business during the TWMPMM I phase and I still mostly trade futures contracts instead of options. I noticed that your heavy into options now. Should I be looking to convert?
Hello Cali Copper! Yes, you should definately look into options and see all that they offer --- I call them "the great equalizer" (just as the six-shooter was in the Wild West) . . . .
Well that's it for another month.
Check out my favorite web sites: www.ToviOnline.com ; www.uschartco.com ; www.FourStarBooks.com ; www.HistoricTrees.org ; www.BillOreilly.com ; www.WldlifeImages.org ; www.Salestax.org (Let's abolish the IRS!); www.LP.org (Take The World's Smallest Political Quiz and see where you stand!); www.VOTE.com (Make your voice heard!).
My next chat --- a specially scheduled GRAND ANNOUNCEMENT Chat --- will take place in three weeks --- Tuesday, May 23rd, 6:pm Pacific Time.
As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good.
Good night, God bless, and watch where you step!
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