Chat Archives
Commodity Chat With Trader Jim! (tm) with Jim Prince with Jim Prince from 09/23/2008
Jim Prince Says: Welcome! We are enjoying fine Japanese cuisene at the moment. But no worries, the chat will get underway at 6:00pm PT.
Jim Prince Says:
Good evening! Trader Jim here. . . Thanks for joining me and your fellow GBE Course Members tonight! There's been a lot going on in the markets lately. For instance, December Soybean Oil; December Soybean Meal; December Eurodollar; December Corn; and December Wheat to name a few. One of the neat things is all of these markets have been featured in our nightly Premium Alert Service™ (PAS) videos. Please share your paper trading or real money trading experiences in any of the markets mentioned above, as well as any others you may have traded. When you discuss your market experiences it helps others learn that they are not alone in this business and it's a great way for everyone to learn from one another. Feel free to share your excitement, passion and enthusiasm! It helps provide others with hope and insight of what can happen. I'd like send a big "Thank You" to Ken Roberts. Ken started introducing folks to the Greatest Business on Earth™ over 20 years ago. I was fortunate enough to not only be a student of Ken's, but I also had the great pleasure to work for him for 12+ years. I'm happy to be able to share with you what I've learned over the years. As we begin this evening's session, remember the reason these monthly chats are conducted is to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and to pick the brain of a 20+ year student of the markets. It's not the best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. Please contact one of our Course Counselors if you need assistance with any of the introductory principles. They can be reached Monday through Friday 8:30am to 5:00pm PT at 541-955-2885. This chat is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun and laughter along those lines, so much the better. NOTE!!! When commenting on one of the GBE strategies or US Charts, please identify WHICH STRATEGY AND/OR MARKET. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please provide details: Futures contracts, options, option strike prices, options AND futures, real money or paper trading, and contrac month etc. This really helps your fellow Course Members follow along and learn from your experience. From time-to-time you may notice that I'll use a bit of "chat short-hand." If you see LOL for example, it means Laughing Out Loud. Or TS, which means Trend Seeker™. These are the two most promanient bits of short hand you'll see within our chats.
Neel R asks (6:03:31 PM):
Hi Jim! You just gotta love the PAS. I just longed the December Canadian $ after today's recommendation at .9642 and it's already up at least .0030 in a few hours or $300 per contract, so I wish every recommendation worked this way. Are you going to do more of those "It's about to happen!" as promised? I really like those as I'm sure do the other members!
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Neel R! Congrats on the Canadian Dollar trade. Make sure to protect the position now! I'll be doing an It's About to Happen when I see something I really like. I don't want to do one just to do it. I like to have all signs pointing that the setup has a good chance of working out. Thanks for joining us again tonight!
SEVENX asks (6:05:07 PM):
DOES US CHARTS PLAN TO INTRODUCE CANDLESTICK CHARTING?
Jim Prince Says: Not at this point, sevenx! We focus on bar charts, so other than using candlesticks to quickly identify a particular price bar, we don't have a specific use for them. But thanks for the question this evening.
paraplane asks (6:06:58 PM):
Do all the trend seekers on daily,weekly and monthly need to agree before one goes ahead with an option purchase?
Jim Prince Says: Ultimately that would be ideal, paraplane but it's not necessary. In fact, rarely do I check the TS direction for all three time frames. Since the GBE methodology is based off of the daily chart, that's the TS trend direction I'm most concerned with.
Alabama KID asks (6:09:59 PM):
Hi JIM: Re: your BLOG of June 3, 2008 11:17am , Risk Management . You said, "In this post, part one of a three part series; I'm going to chat about risk management and the thought process that most traders take." I have not found part two or three of this very interesting post.
Jim Prince Says:
Good question, Alabama Kid! And it's not the first time it's been asked. The reason you haven't found the other two parts is because I haven't written them yet. My initial thought was to place a part in the blog each quarter. I think I'm behind the eight-ball with that schedule right now. Once I get through with the project I'm working on right now I'll put together part two. That said, it probably won't be until November. I'm working on my newest Master the Chart DVDs about advance options strategies.
WayneinLA asks (6:12:24 PM):
Do you trade or look at forex? Would trading one currency against another in forex increase the opportunities?
Jim Prince Says:
Hey WayneinLA! I have traded the forex before but do not at this time. The bid/ask spread is something I don't care for. I prefer the Currencies that we follow at US Charts. You can trade them opposite one another. For instance, you can buy the US Dollar Index and sell the Euro Currency. They usually move opposite one another. Hope this helps.
Jasper asks (6:16:01 PM):
When TS says a market is Extreme or Strong what does that mean exactly? And more importantly how do we use it?
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Jasper! Extreme means the trend is at its most powerful point. A strong rating is a notch below extreme. I don't focus much on these Trend Signal Rankings. I prefer to give my attention to a bit longer-term format. Thus, I focus on the Trend Seeker Trend Ratings. Be sure to check out the Trend Seeker video I produced that covers all aspects of Trend Seeker. You can find the video by clicking on this link.
Bama Jack asks (6:18:07 PM):
Hello Jim, glad to hear your wife is recovering well from her operation. I have noticed that when the dollar goes up that oil and most commodities go down and vice versa-is this the norm or a new trend in time Thanks!
Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the comment about my wife, Bama Jack! Generally speaking that is the norm in regards to the Dollar versus other markets. Thanks for stopping by tonight.
Gold Bug asks (6:21:08 PM):
Jim do you think gold will ralley back to 1000 dollars an ounce and if so would that push silver up a lot higher?
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Goldbug! I try not to guess what the markets are going to do. Rather I try to trade what I see. In other words, I let the charts/markets tell me what to do. That said, it's quite possible that someday gold will be back to 1000 and such movement would likely take silver with it. But I have no idea if or when that might happen. Put your focus on the charts, you'll find that swimming with the current is a lot easier than going against it. Thanks for joining us tonight. Good to see you here.
JimmyC asks (6:28:13 PM):
Hi Jim,I seem to have a problem with my timing or selection of trades. For example, Dec Corn a couple of weeks ago formed a fish hook and I hesitated to paper trade it because I like to trade off the GBE chart formations. So I paper traded, the break out of the pennant of Dec. Corn last week but that didn’t seem to have worked out. Now I see a possible entry in Dec. Corn (due to my new GBE Early Entry Techniques DVD. Thanks!). My question is: Is there something in the chart that says a certain formation is stronger or more probable than the others or is it just a case of you win some, you lose some.BTW, love the PAS videos.Thanks.
Jim Prince Says:
Good question! I think that the best patterns are those that form when a trend is visual. In other words, it's a trend you can easily see on the chart. I think the pennant in Dec. Corn tends to be a little more in the middle of the chart. Take a look at the graphic below to see what I mean. 
I hope this helps.
mack4 asks (6:32:07 PM):
Hi Jim, do you keep track of the results of your PAS paper trades, i.e., treating them as if they were an actual acct? In my view this would be an effective teaching tool b/c you could demonstrate things like position sizing and acct management on a daily basis. Thanks
Jim Prince Says:
Hi mack4! We don't do that publicly because we are not an advisory service. So we leave it up to each individual. I think this is best because everybody is different in their risk tolerance and pocketbooks. That said, we are currently working on something up that alley so to speak. I can't say more than this, but stay tuned. You'll know it when you see it in your email box, but probably not til after the first of the year. Thanks for your comments.
Jim Prince Says:
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Alabama KID asks (6:37:04 PM):
Hi Jim: Do you think risk management, as taught by the GBE is one of the most important factors in protecting your investment capital?
Jim Prince Says:
Absolutely Alabama Kid! It's probably the most overlooked part of trading. That's why I spent several month putting together the Targets, Stops and Money Management Made Easy DVDs. As a trader you have to be much like an insurance company. You have to be a master of risk management. Once you've figured this part out, it can make a HUGE difference in your bottom line.
Jess of the Future asks (6:39:01 PM):
Hey Jim! You say that a target based upon support and resistance is more of a zone than exact number. How about using a Robo exit calculation to establish that zone? Also, after watching all the Training Videos I've come to associate the opening jingle with success, so when will we get a downloadable ringtone of the PAS song for our cell phones!
Jim Prince Says:
LOL, Jess of the Future! I like the ring-tone idea. Nice job! You could surely use the Robo calculation for exits. Good job, I like that you are thinking outside the box. Let me know how it works for you.
WayneinLA asks (6:41:49 PM):
Hi Jim, I have recently begun trading again with real money. I was long US$, Dec. Eurodollars, and short Dec. soymeal. Each of these made a nice move within 2 days, but then reversed. I did turn a profit in the first two, but am now down in soymeal. Each time my broker called to tell me I was up, the implication being that I might consider taking my profit. Do you generally take the quick profit, even though the intial target is not close yet?
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Wayne, I don't. The idea is to set a profit target and trail stops. If the target isn't hit, the stops will be. If you just randomly decide to exit a position you'll hurt yourself in the long run as you'll miss many of the opportunities that provide big moves to your targets. Bottom line. . . have a target and trail protective stops. Some trades will hit the targets, others will trigger the stops.
Marsha asks (6:45:04 PM):
Hi Jim,Given all the current government intervention in the stock markets and corporations, do you think the government will start trying to control the commodity markets too ? Also, I want to say, I began the year with a profit, but due to trading what I "thought" and not what I "saw" in the charts, I am down a bit but recovering. I am really trying to work on that valuable lesson and I will try to not make that mistake again ! Thanks for all the good trading information you provide. I am reading The Disciplined Trader right now. Very good book !
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Marsha! I don't really expect the govt to do anything to speak of in the commodity markets. But who's to say? I mean who out there expected an $85 billion dollar bailout of insurer AIG? Glad to read that you're getting yourself back on track. Trading what you think rather than what you see is an easy trap to fall into. Take it slow and easy, just like you would if eating an elephant! Btw, I appreciate the notes you send to the Course Counselors about my blog. Thanks!
JimmyC asks (6:48:54 PM):
Hi Jim,In an up-trending market, when setting targets do you use the prior High or Low values? Thanks.
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Jimmy C! Prior highs and lows make up the bulk of the profit targets I set. This could be a high/low made 3 months ago or 3 weeks ago. But there is nothing special about these areas of support and resistance. You just have to be able to recognize them on the chart. Check out the Training Videos with these dates: 07/28/06, 08/04/06 and 11/17/06. They should help you a lot.
Jim from Kalamazoo, asks (6:52:41 PM):
I haven't traded in 3 months, partly because I am afraid to give back a gain I had on a trade. How do you keep motivated to trade?
Jim Prince Says: Hi Jim! Simply by following the markets each and every day! There is something new happening virtually every day. I think it's impossible to get board. That said, don't trade if you are scared. But also remember that there is risk in every single trade you take. Find a setup you like and trade it. Only you'll know when that opportunity arises. That's the bottom line.
Jim Prince Says:
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zetty asks (6:55:57 PM):
Hi Jim, Plan the trade, trade the plan, best advice ever. Entered a paper trade July 10 on 3 calls of Eurodollar. Set entre price, stop price, profit price and then I waited, and waited. Then, on Friday morning Sept 12, I gave up on the trade and took my loss inoder to look for better fishing. That day the Eurodollar took off. All I can say is Plan the trade and Trade the Plan. Great learning lesson. Thanks for all you do!
Jim Prince Says: I couldn't have said it better, zetty! You are now on the right path jedi.
Jasper asks (7:02:21 PM):
Is the Eurodollar too wild to jump into now? It has been in a channel for a while.
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Jasper! The Dec. Eurodollar has been crazy! It actually broke out of the channel to the upside, then two days later it broke out to the downside! To crazy for me! I wrote about the craziness in this market last week in my notes on the chart. I also chatted about it on the Premium Alert Service videos. To crazy for me. . .
eld40 asks (7:07:31 PM):
I saw what I thought was a bottom end flag on CanadienDec. $ . It was set to trade a put, however you never mentioned it but did give us a good head up on the channel. which followed. did I misread the flag? ELD
Jim Prince Says:
Hey eld40! Thanks for stopping by this evening. I don't see a flag, but I do see a channel. I've had this channel marked in the Chart Book for awhile now. Originally we were watching for a paper trading entry to the downside. But the TS trend rating recently changed after prices broke out to the upside. So the paper trading entry was out of the channel to the upside. Here's the chart:
josepig asks (7:11:02 PM):
Hi Jim In a hi/low at what point dose the hi/low stop beinghi or low, and go to a new hi or low. When looking for a market to retrace for entry.
Jim Prince Says: Hey josepig! To qualify for a Hi Lo we look for the 12 month high or low. If the market hasn't traded for that length of time, we focus on the life of contract high or low as long as the market has traded for at least six months. Be sure to take a look at the Training Video dated 09/22/06 and titled Hi Lo Breakout Strategy entry.
Momof6 asks (7:13:36 PM):
This is my first time in your chat sessions. I have learned a lot reading them and now I have a question...I have entered my first real money trade in Dec. Corn, with a purchase of a put option. I have my mental stop at 565 which has not yet been breached. Today I noticed that you reset the lower trend line to encompase the original close below the original trend line, and are now waiting for yet another close below the formation. My intent is to keep my stop at 565. You have taught to plan your trade and trade your plan...would that be the right thing to do under these circumstances.
Jim Prince Says:
Good question Momof6! Yep, we had a paper trading trigger last week and then prices rallied to hit the stops I was focusing on. Once that happened I redrew/moved the lower line to encompass all of the recent price data. That said, you should stick to your plan! You are exactly right in saying plan your trade and trade your plan. Nice job!
manny asks (7:20:13 PM):
Manny . Hi Jim bless u, there was a paper trade on soyabean meal sept 16 im wondering why you stopped mentioning it on the premium alert
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Manny! Well I'm not too proud to say that somehow I didn't transfer that trade within my personal paper work! So this is a good lesson for everyone. Make sure you keep good records! I keep a hand written journal and somehow I didn't transfer the trade from one page to another. Just goes to show that it doesn't matter how long you're in this business you will make a mistake from time-to-time. That said, the paper trade is still active. Here's the chart.
Jess of the Future asks (7:22:39 PM):
Hi Jim, I'm still not sure what the differences are between the V formation and the 123? I'm watching the Money Management DVD right now and it's fantastic! You think of everything. This is truly a complete course!
Jim Prince Says:
Howdy Jess of the Future! A 1-2-3 bottom will look much like a "W". A 1-2-3 top will look much like an "M". If you visulize either of these on the chart in question you should be able to see the difference between the "W", "M", and "V". Thanks for the nice comments on the DVD!
Jim Prince Says:
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shorty asks (7:27:17 PM):
Jim , do you think that the markets will suffer if they have big margin increases imposed on them as suggested by one of the "brainiacs" in Washington , ( I guess in light of current financial institutions' meltdown ) ?
Jim Prince Says:
Well shorty, I think all of this type of thing is purely speculation at this point. I'm not going to comment because my response is just gonna be a guess. I know the CFTC recently held a meeting, the government types in D.C. are now starting to get interested. So I'm not sure. But there is one thing I'm sure about and that is this is an election year! So who really knows what's going to happen at this point. Until we find out something in one fashion or another, let's stick to our charts and Trend Seeker! Thanks for the question.
grampacharlie asks (7:32:24 PM):
Hi Jim:I hope Debra's recovery is going well. I purchased a Dec. Corn put option, My plan was to liquidate it if the futures price rose above recent resistance which occurred during the overnight session Sunday night/Monday morning. I called my broker Monday morning and placed a limit order to liquidate. It was not filled, my question is should a market order be placed in this situation instead of a limit order?
Jim Prince Says:
Hey grampacharlie! Thanks for the nice comment. In regards to your option. . . this is where a good broker can really help. Remember there is no guarantee your limit order will be filled. So the broker should work with you to help determine a possible exit price based on where the option is currently trading as well as what the underlying futures market is doing. These all fit together. A limit order is the right order to use. But one thing I recommend people do is consider taking less on the exit. That way you're much more apt to get a fill. I don't think a market order should be used. It's the type of order you want to use in a worst case scenario only. At least that is my opinion. I encourge you to develop a rapport with your broker and get him/her to help you exit the trade at a realistic price.
jazman asks (7:35:46 PM):
Jim,hope your wife is on the road to recovery. I've been reading about the upcoming high demand and low supply worldwide for sugar, however the March sugar chart doesn't reflect this yet. Any ideas? Jazman in Colorado.
Jim Prince Says:
jazman, sorry to say this but I have no idea. Seriously, I don't follow any fundamental thought of the markets. In fact, I had no idea about any "upcoming high demand and low supply" until you mentioned it. I simply follow the charts and Trend Seeker. I keep stuff as simple as possible. For me to try to keep up on possible fundamental issues is an impossibility.
Z-Man asks (7:37:38 PM):
What is your favorite chart pattern to trade and why?
Jim Prince Says: Well Z-man, I'd have to say the pennant formation (a.k.a the symmetrical triangle). It's easy for me to recognize and therefore I spot them all the time. In addition, the pennant formation seems to work pretty well with Trend Seekers trend rating.
Kelowna asks (7:40:47 PM):
Hi Jim, Thank you for all your time and effort that you give putting these videos and blogs together for us. I was told that traders working for banks etc. can actually see on their software where your stops have been placed so can go and get them. Do you think there is any truth to this? Thank you Kelowna
Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the nice comments, Kelowna! Software, schmoftware. . . I'll tell you right now where the stops are and then you can use the information for your future trading. The majority of stops are placed above resistance levels and below support levels. That's it! Folks have a tendency not to want to believe it, but it is the case.
Axel from Texas asks (7:44:20 PM):
Hi Jim. Thanks for your great work especially in the PAS. I love options trading, as I do not have a lot of money in my account (started with $1200 only). Is there a way that you can incorporate more advanced option stragegies and the preferred chart patterns with the those strategies?
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Axel from Texas! That's a great question. I try do when I can but unfortunately I'm limited to the amount of time I have for the daily videos. Typically they tend to run 10-12 minutes right now, and most of the time I only have time to discuss setups based on the chart patterns themselves. While I can't promise it, I'll see what I can do though. I sincerely appreciate your interest.
kona t asks (7:47:06 PM):
Aloha Jim- glad Debra is home - I have been with Ken and you for the past 10 years- up and down but always holding on to the dream - now its real - I am trading full time! I 'll keep you posted on progress- just wanted to tell our GBE family- don't quit!!! Hi to Joe(?) - I've followed your comments for years and love to trade coffee too! Thanks Jim for all you do- the premium alert line is my format for the trades for the following day -- I too love the idea for the cell phone ring to be the premium alert line- hope to see you in Grants Pass next trip to the mainland!
Jim Prince Says: Hi kona t! Thanks for the kind words and congrats on trading full time! You rock! Stop by anytime and if I'm here I'll buy you a cup of coffee!
Carlos_T asks (7:49:13 PM):
First off, I'd like to say thanks to you trader Jim for your consistent help in my paper trading. This is my first chat session and being a member for close to a month has brought me to realize the simplicity of trading through studying your tools and formation. I have no questions for you this chat session, just like to say that you have a satisfied member in this business.
Jim Prince Says:
Carlos_T, awesome dude! As wrestler Ric Flare would say. . . whoooooooooooo! Glad you stopped by tonight and glad you recognize the power of the GBE methodology. I look forward to seeing you at future chats. Have a great evening!
Jim Prince Says:
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greg in arizona asks (7:51:18 PM):
Hi Jim, Glad to hear your wife is doing well. I know people who have had that surgery, and it's no walk in the park. I look forward to the PAS Videos each day, they are a fantastic learning tool. Many thanks!
Jim Prince Says: Thanks, greg in arizona!
Alabama KID asks (7:52:11 PM):
Hi Jim: I don’t know about you all but I am having a great time with the GBE!
Jim Prince Says: Great to read, Alabama KID! Thanks for sharing!
cdrfs asks (7:54:55 PM):
Hi Jim,Just wondering if there are any stats on how long it takes a newbie to place first order? I have been in the course under your teaching for 3 months. I have made 3 trades, oj (profit of 285.00), mini corn (profit of 90.00) and have a coffee option. I use to always beat myself up by thinking, gee, I could have made more if only,,,,,, Now I stick to plan and take base hits. yes, even 90.00 was a base hit for me. Is it hard for other traders to get over such mentality?
Jim Prince Says:
No stats that I know of cdrfs. But I think a lot of folks jump into real money trading before they are really ready. Folks take it slow! I think from what you've stated you seem to be on the right track. It's fantastic that you've figured out the importance of having a plan! You are leaps and bounds ahead of those that haven't!
Susan from Missouri asks (7:57:02 PM):
Hi Jim, Just to let you know I enjoy your comments and pictures about other "things" on your blog as well as comments re: trading. My question: when you get stopped out of a market then within the same day or the next it turns and again heads in your direction according the your criteria, do you usually get back in or just move on the the next one?
Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the comments about the blog, Susan from Missouri! I will look to get back in but only if a chart pattern is in place. If there is not a chart pattern that I can visualize and paper trade, I'll wait until there is. Hope this helps.
Axel from Texas asks (8:00:50 PM):
Hi Jim. We use TS as a filter, however, it updates only at 5 pm central. Is there a way for it to update sooner?
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Axel! The entire TS process is completely automated. Once the day session of the markets closes the data is analyzed by TS and then uploaded to the site. Keep in mind that thousands upon thousands of pieces of data is analyzed. It just takes the computer a few hours to do it's thing. Bottom line is it gets there as soon as possible. Good question.
Debbie B asks (8:03:25 PM):
Hi Jim, just to give you all a "stat" - I've been studying for about a month and 1/2 and I am still scared to do anything at all.... so I continue to learn. Soon, I hope to stick my toe in the water! (so to speak). Thanks for all of the great education!!
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Debbie B! Welcome aboard! Don't be in a hurry to jump in the markets. Be sure you are totally comfortable with the strategies and understand how the markets work. Only you'll know when the time is right. But don't force your way into the markets for fear of missing opportunities. There will always be opportunities.
Jim Prince Says:
Well that's it for this month. Keep in mind, that you're not alone in your trading journey. US Charts Online, myself, and our wonderful Course Counselors (541-955-2885) are here to help you become the best you can be. On that note, be sure to check out our weekly video training lessons at: US Charts Online. This is a fantastic teaching tool and free to all GBE Members and US Chart Online subscribers! Finally, make sure you have a plan prior to entering any trade and use stops to protect your trading capital. As a trader your capital is THE most valuable asset you have! Plan your trade and trade your plan! My next chat will be on Tuesday, October 14, 2008. God Bless and I look forward to seeing you then!
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