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Commodity Chat With Trader Jim! (tm) with Jim Prince with Jim Prince
from 06/16/2009



Jim Prince Says:

Howdy and good evening! Trader Jim here. . .

Thanks for investing the most precious commodity you have with me and your fellow GBE Course Members tonight -- your time!

As always we have a lot to chat about tonight. After breaking out of trading ranges near mid-May, the majority of the Grains are back inside those ranges. That said, since we last met several markets really got after it! Virtually all of the Currencies moved very nicely and in some cases triggered multiple MET triggers a long the way. To top it off Crude Oil also made a nice run.

And I should mention that for the most part just about all of the markets mentioned above were (or are) featured in my nightly Premium Alert Service™ (PAS) videos.

Recently things have slowed down just a bit -- excluding the crazy action in just about every market during Monday's trading session. The slow down, however, simply means we have to be patient and let the markets come to us. Don't force the setups, let them materialize and then get on board! As I say quite often, patience is the key!

I encourage yuou to freely share any of your recent paper trading or real money market endeavors. Discussing your trading experiences lets others know they are not alone in this business, and it's a great way for everyone to learn from one another.

Discussing your market experiences lets others know they are not alone in this business. So please feel free to share your excitement, enthusiasm, and dedication. It provides others hope and optimism of what's to come.

I'd like send a big "Thank You" to Ken Roberts. Ken started introducing folks to the Greatest Business on Earth™ over 20 years ago. I was fortunate enough to not only be a student of Ken's, but I also had the great pleasure to work for him for 12+ years. I'm happy to be able to share with you what I've learned over the years.

As we begin this evening's session, remember the reason these monthly chats are conducted is to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and to pick the brain of a 20+ year student of the markets.

It's not the best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. Please contact one of our Course Counselors if you need assistance with any of the introductory principles. They can be reached at 541-955-2885. This chat is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun and laughter along those lines, so much the better.

NOTE!!! When commenting on one of the GBE strategies or US Charts, please identify WHICH STRATEGY AND/OR MARKET you used. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please provide details: Futures contracts, options, option strike prices, options AND futures, real money or paper trading, and contract month etc. This really helps your fellow Course Members follow along and learn from your experiences.

From time-to-time you may notice that I'll use a bit of "chat short-hand." If you see LOL for example, it means Laughing Out Loud. Or TS which means Trend Seeker. These are the two most prominient bits of short hand you'll see me use.







Jim Prince Says:
We're just finishing up eating dinner, so we'll start the chat in about 15 minutes -- i.e. 6:00pm PT.



donahuenew asks (6:05:55 PM):

Jim,in your personal trading,do you ever buy or sell options as insurance for your futures trade's.Thanks 4 the great research tools at us charts.

Jim Prince Says:

Welcome, donahuenew! I don't use options as insurance when trading futures contracts. It's not a strategy I care for. The reason is the purchase of that option is an expense. Therefore, you begin the trade in the red, i.e. a loss that you have to make up.

For example, if you go long a futures market and buy a put option for protection (instead of using a stop) you have to pay for that put option. Let's say you pay $500 for that option. Your futures position has to make $500 before you're at break even. Plus, for the majority of the markets the options expire the month prior to First Notice Day of the futures contract. So you're back to needing a stop in place or your position is naked.

Hope this helps.





Mike in NYC asks (6:11:03 PM):

Why did you post the "Upcoming Economic Reports" on Jim's Blog on June 13th? Do you now use some Fundamental information to guide your trading? Is it not suggested anymore to trade solely from the price action on the charts? Thanks for clarifying.

Jim Prince Says:
The Upcoming Econmic Reports were posted simply as a courtesy. I don't trade by them at all, but there are those occasions I think it's good to know some of the information that was listed. Specifically First Notice Day, Last Trading Day, and options expiration. I realize that these are on each chart at USC Online but you can never have to many reminders in my book. Also if I'm trading the DOW or S&P I want to be sure I know when an FOMC Meeting is lurking -- because it can move the markets. 



mastercnsltcy asks (6:13:20 PM):

As a beginner what are some of the easier commodities to work with, if there is such a thing?

Jim Prince Says:

Boy mastercnsltcy, I'm not sure there is such a thing. That said, the Grains are probably the easiest markets to calculate profits and losses. But in this day and age there are very few slow moving markets. I guess if I had to point to one market I'd probably say Eurodollars. But even that might be a stretch.

I suggest you paper trade as many markets as you can. Doing so will really help expand your learning curve.

Thanks for joining us tonight.





vnormth asks (6:15:19 PM):

Greetings! When looking for a fish-hook (or any kind of pull-back) to a penant formation, do you use the price at which the break-out occured or use the new price that the penant's angular line creates as time goes by?

Jim Prince Says:

Good question, vnormth! I will typically use the price of the breakout about 99% of the time. However, I don't think you can go wrong using that or the angle of the line as you mention.

I hope this helps.





Teresa asks (6:17:53 PM):

I also wanted to thank you for introducing Daniels trading. I have been working with Brian and I find him very helpful. He has sent me a couple of books to read and is always available for questions I have. A very patient person who doesn't mind spending time to help me with my paper trading. In the past I have had not felt comfortable with other trading companies so have never settled on one. I am a past student of Ken's and I am back to try this again. I am having good results with paper trading now. I always wondered why the options I chose did not act like the futures when the market moved. So now I pick ones that are close to the money and I am greatly surprised with the results. It is actually fun now to do this! Thanks for your help.

Jim Prince Says:

Awesome, Teresa! Glad to hear Brian at Daniels is helping you. They are a great bunch of guys over there and I can't say enough good things about them.

Sounds like you're on the right track now with proper option selection too! Way to go!

Please keep in touch and let us know how your journey progresses!

Glad you're back with us!





Stan from MO asks (6:20:42 PM):

Hi Jim, how much credence do you put in the "oversold, overbought" terms oft used by others in this business? Noted that Ken didn't think much of it. Thanks

Jim Prince Says:

Frankly Stan from MO I don't pay a bit of attention to it or those who use the terminology. One man's oversold or overbought market is another man's strongly trending market!Wink

I just trade the trend until it ends! Remember, as chartists the one thing we have going for us is the charts don't lie!





mldumm asks (6:23:40 PM):

Jim, how close do you follow your stops to give the trade some "breathing room".

Jim Prince Says:

Good question, mldumm! Stop placement is such a personal thing. Breathing room for one person might be a "choke hold" for another. Typically though I will trail stops just beyond points of support or resistance. That said, I may use a level that formed one day ago or a few weeks ago. It really depends on the market and the volatility of the market.

If you follow the Premium Alerts, what you see within the daily videos is pretty much what I do on a daily basis.





cschrader asks (6:29:09 PM):

I was thinking about buying a put option for July corn at 405 a couple days ago when the futures price was around 418. My broker advised to try a farther out month since he felt he would be "cheating" me if he got me in the market with a July option since there isn't much time left on the option. I didn't purchase the option for any month, but is this advise I should follow or could it have been a low ball opportunity?

Jim Prince Says:

Well cschrader, it sounds like your broker had your best interest at heart. However, if you really want to trade a certain strategy you might want to fill your broker in with what you're plan is. Perhaps he would have had a change of heart.

That said, I'm not sure why you would have wanted to buy a put option. While it may have worked out, the Low Ball strategy criteria were not met. So no Low Ball entry would have been initiated. Be sure you read the strategy again and make sure you follow all the steps. In this case Trend Seeker(tm) still said the trend was up and a formation was not in place. So two of the three steps were never in place.





peter asks (6:31:07 PM):

Lets say you have $5000 in your account. is there any way to trade crude oil? A strategy that doesn't require the margin or maintenance

Jim Prince Says:

You can trade options, peter. But for the most part even those will be expensive in the Crude Oil market.

When trading futures contracts you'll always have a margin requirement. It doesn't matter if you buy or sell the futures outright or trade spreads.





Kailua Girl asks (6:33:29 PM):

Is there any particular market that has made any interresting moves?

Jim Prince Says:

Well Kailua Girl that's a pretty open question. A couple of the more volatile markets of the last several months have been the mini-Dow as well as the S&P 500 emini contracts.

During the last month Wheat made a 60+ cent move higher and has since given it all back.

Be sure to take a look at the charts of these markets as I think you'll have a better understanding of what I mean.

 





Rob from ND asks (6:34:51 PM):

Hi Jim! Just a comment again for my fellow course members. "Cotton On Top" in last month's chat asked about advice on being gun shy after taking some big hits. Here is what helped me after taking a massive hit in real money. I took a month off and refocused. During that month off I proved to myself on paper that I could still trade very profitably just as I did for over a year prior to real money trading. I also reduced my position size from 3 contracts to two contracts. For me personally trading two contracts at time works wonders technically and more importantly, emotionally. I shave the first position off at a small profit, usually about 50% or better of what my initial risk per contract is. Now my remaining risk is greatly reduced or eliminated. My advice to "Cotton On Top" is to do what you already know you can do! Do exactly as you did on paper. Have faith in yourself and take it slow. It works! P.S. - Here is a quote from a bigtime trader (can't remember who) that I have hanging near my computer. This also works wonders for me. "Always take your profit too soon. The bulls make money and bears make money, but the pigs never do."

Jim Prince Says:
Well said, Rob from ND! Smile





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Heritage West Financ asks (6:44:12 PM):

Greetings Jim,This question is a little outside the realm of price action but I've noticed that you are keeping a close eye on U.S. econmoic government reports. So I thought I'd ask: to what extent if any would you assign a probability to the current unrest in Iran over it's disputed election results spilling over into the crude oil market. I know....funnymentals as Ken would say. It's a long shot but I thought I'd ask. Your thoughts and opinions are appreciated. God Bless

Jim Prince Says:

Well I'll just be blunt. . . I don't watch the news , haven't watched a financial channel in weeks, nor read a web site news report in a month or more. Because of that I didn't even know of any unrest in Iran. Yep, you read it here. I had no idea. Frankly, I don't pay attention to any of it. In my opinion all the news is slanted to one degree or another. And to top it off, when was the last time you heard good news? Wink

Anyway, like I mentioned earlier, I don't trade based on any report. I just like to know when certain things are coming due. That's about it.

Good question. Thanks for stopping by tonight.  





Crawf asks (6:48:25 PM):

Hello Trader Jim:While 'diggin' around in some of my 'old' papers on strategies I found one I over looked way back when? Named 'The Seven Day Stock Market Secret'. Are you familiar with that? If so, is the VLI(Value Line Index) a financial index still available, where? Crawf

Jim Prince Says:

I'm very familiar with it Crawf! I used to trade it for Ken Roberts back in the day. To my knowledge the VLI no longer exists. At one point we actually switched to trading the NYSE using that strategy. But that also became so thinly traded that it didn't work very well.

I'm sure that strategy could be adjusted for use in today's bigger stock indices. It's just that it would take a lot of research to find out. Maybe one day I'll have some free time to give it a shot.





Tradetracker asks (6:49:31 PM):

Hi Jim, Thank You for all that you do for us. No question but an observation. I am working with the Grain Report and recommend it highly. Someone with limited funds could do quite well with this trading system. But remember, patience, patience, patience!!!

Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the nice comments, Tradetracker! I agree with your observations 100%!





Jim Prince Says:

Click here to learn more about the Grain Report





timbo asks (6:55:59 PM):

Hey Jim, thanks alot for the premium alerts. This service has really helped me realize the money making potential. When you trade a market,and it goes in your favor, do you get the invested capital in return?

Jim Prince Says:

Hi timbo! I assume you're talking about futures contracts? If so, yes, the margin money is put back into your trading account.

Thanks for the nice words about the Premium Alert Service videos. Glad you find the service useful.





grampacharlie asks (6:59:30 PM):

Hi Jim:I want to thank Rob from ND for sharing his comment. I hit a losing streak last fall and like him took some time off and paper traded until I was sure I could do it. I am trading real money now and doing well.

Jim Prince Says:

Thanks for sharing, grampacharlie! It's exactly what I recommend to folks whenever I'm asked what they should do. It really gives your head a chance to clear and allows you to approach the markets with a fresh mindset.

I'm glad you're back in the saddle again (or how about my take on the band Aerosmith's song. . . I'm back trading cattle again. . .LOLSmile)





Carl T asks (7:01:56 PM):

Hi Jim. Been having problems with timing of entries. My question is, when a trade is triggered and your waiting for the market to pull back to your entry point, would you enter a resting limit order before the market opens, or would you wait for the market to open, see if it pulls back to your entry, and then enter a market order to get in at that point.

Jim Prince Says:
Typically Carl T, I'll place a resting limit order good til canceled. That way I don't have to watch the market all day long. The order can be working without me "hatching" my computer so to speak.



larry asks (7:06:18 PM):

Hi Jim,I have been trading the markets for about a month and a half,and have traded pretty actively staying in from one to four positions most of the time. I have had both successes and setbacks. My biggest challenge has been when to exit a market. I initially trailed advances only to be stopped out with profits that were nominal compared to what the market went on to do... OR I set targets based upon the charts and passed on chances to take profits only to end up stopped out with a loss. As a small investor doing this for the first time, whom would like to become a good trader,am I better off setting a very modest goal to build my account or stay with targets in the long run? Thanks

Jim Prince Says:

larry, this is very typical for those just starting out in the business. While it can be frustrating remember that it's a learning process.

I would always shoot for at least a 2:1 risk/reward ratio. Keep doing what you're doing. In the long run ti will pay off the way you desire. You simply have to maintain the discipline. I think modest goals and protecting your account as the number one priority a good option.

Maybe consider paper trading a bit more to find exactly what works for you. That will typically provide a lot of answers if you're honest with yourself during the paper trading process -- and I have no doubt you will be.





Kailua Girl asks (7:08:13 PM):

Does your Grain Report talk about how to use options, futures or both?

Jim Prince Says:

While I do talk about three different approaches to trading options in the Grain Report, there is one specific strategy I prefer for this method and it is option based.

 





Russ-Malibu asks (7:09:44 PM):

Jim, I started trading back in 1998 with Ken in the saddle and Main Street was my broker of choice. I've done many other businesses during that time but I'm only smiling when I'm in the market. This is a very satisfying and (addicting) business for me. I sincerely hope that the other people in this chat enjoy the GBE as much as I do. It's true that there are ups and downs (like in any business) but when the ups happen they are very fun! Thanks for your charts and comments. They really do help!

Jim Prince Says:
Hey Russ-Malibu! I remember you attending the chats back-in-the-day! Thanks for stopping by tonight. Glad you're still plugging away at the Greatest Business on Earth!



BUZZ WYLIE asks (7:12:25 PM):

I WAS INVOLVED IN FUTURES TRADING ABOUT 8-10 YEARS AGO WHERN KEN HAD HIS COURSE, AND I RECENTLY ORDERED THIS COURSE TO GET FAMILIAR WITH EVERTHING AGAIN. LOOKING AT THE SAMPLE OF US CHARTS THAT CAME WITH THE COURSE, I NOTICED THAT MARGIN REQUIREMENTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN BEFORE, EVEN IN THE GRAINS. IS THIS DUE TO INCREASED VOLATILITY OR HAS MARGINS ON MOST OF THE COMMODITIES INCREASED OVER THE YEARS ?

Jim Prince Says:

Welcome aboard, BUZZ WYLIE! You are absolutely correct in saying that margins are higher. The increase is basically due to the increased volatility of the last few years.

One good thing though that has come out of the volatility is that if you're a futures trader there are many good and heavily traded mini contracts available. Any broker should be happy to provide you with a list if you're interested.





joe186 asks (7:17:01 PM):

Hi Jim, Do you see Wheat at a support level? Looks very interesting , hope it will turn around soon

Jim Prince Says:

I've marked a couple levels in blue on the chart below. Right now the 600 level is key. If it's lost, the next major level is the bottom of the channel.

 

September 2009 Wheat






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Bonita Joe asks (7:24:24 PM):

Jim - Thanks for the info on spreads. I have some Sept Bull Call Spreads and some Sept Credit Spreads. The last rise in the dollar really took the wind out of my sales, but it all comes back. No matter how long I have traded, I still get too emotional about the day to day workings. Over the long haul, I have found that when I hit a dry spell I cut back on futures and go to close to or in the money options to take the edge off. Your trading books help plus some others from Ken 9 years ago. All in all, I LOVE the ride more than almost anything associated with "work". Since the election, there has an inordinate amount of uncertaintity in the markets? What do you think? Thanks for your obvious enthusiam and congrats to your son for graduating from high school. He looks like a nice guy. Bonita Joe

Jim Prince Says:

Thanks for stopping by, Bonita Joe! Yep, the markets have been rather volatile and of course uncertainty is always part of the trading process. I think the best thing we can do to combat the emotions etc. is to make sure we always have a plan for each trade. Doing so really eliminates a lot of the bug-a-boos we tend to put into our trading.

Thanks for the nice words too. And just in case you couldn't tell, I'm very proud of my son on his special day.Laughing (Bonita is referring to the picture I posted in my blog of my son and myself.)





Limit Up Texas asks (7:26:58 PM):

Jim, I notice you don't seem to discuss Bull/Bear Flags as much as you used to yet I see them setup on several chart patterns is it still a quality chart read ?

Jim Prince Says:
Guess I'm just not seeing them as much, Limit Up Texas! That said, one thing I've noticed over the last year or so is the almost total lack of follow-through with these formations. Perhaps that's why I haven't "seen" them as much. My subconscious is telling me to stay away! Wink



NYC Kidd asks (7:29:18 PM):

Hi Trader Jim, I was wondering if they could add an alert feature to U.S Charts that would send an email just like the "It just happened" or automatically "pop up" as soon as we log on to the charts. This would be great for keeping track of price fills and stops. Thanks

Jim Prince Says:

I'll pass on your idea, NYC Kidd! If I may, I'd also suggest sending in a message with your requst via the link at the very bottom of any US Charts Online page.

It looks like this: We welcome your feedback, or to report a technical problem or error, click here.





yogii asks (7:37:37 PM):

Hi Jim, July Soybean Meal closed today at 404.3 and December closed at 319.3. If trading December contracts on a setup does the big difference in price between the two months represent an opportunity or a reason for caution? How do you analize this? Thanks for all your guidance.

Jim Prince Says:

Great question, yogii! I personally like this and my plan is to actually produce a Master the Chart DVD about this scenario down the road. Anyway, many times with the front month contract being so much higher the further out months are almost pulled up to a similar level like they're magnetized! Of course there are no guarantees that this will happen, but it does happen quite often.

Anyway, like I said a DVD is in my thought process and thus it would require a lot more time and a bigger explanation to explain this phenomenon. Nonetheless, hopefully you find what I mentioned above helpful. 





Rob from ND asks (7:38:36 PM):

Hey Bonita Joe, just wanted to say thanks for a post you made over a year ago about turning $30,000 into $430,000 in a very short time span. I actually printed that out and hung it on my wall for inspiration! And believe me, in the year plus that is has hung there it has worked! Thanks!

Jim Prince Says:
!Laughing



Michigan Mike asks (7:40:44 PM):

Hi Trader Jim. Thanks for all that you and the staff at US Charts do for us. On a previous chat you said that you look over the charts and markets for an hour or two once a day and then spend the rest of your time with family and friends. With all of the different trading hours of the various markets what time of day would you recommend as the best time to look over the charts if you can only do it once per day?Thanks

Jim Prince Says:
I typically do it at the end of the day session, Michigan Mike. Basically when I do the Premium Alert Service videos. Of course I might look at a chart or two during the day. But 99% of my analysis comes shortly after the end of the day session or the end of "normal" trading hours.



Trader Dave asks (7:45:26 PM):

Hey Jim, I’ve been a long time follower and have learned quite a bit in the past few years from you. Out of everything you offer, I do enjoy the Premium Alert service the most. I was wondering, what do you do when you’re in a contract month that is about to expire, but you still want to follow through with your plan? Do you roll over into the following front month, and if so how? Thanks for your time!

Jim Prince Says:

Thanks for the nice words, Trader Dave! If a contract is about to expire I won't rollover to the next trading month unless a chart pattern has formed. For me blindly jumping in the next contract doesn't make much sense. I say this because many times the next contract month chart may look completely different. So I wait for a formation to develop or even something like a MET entry in the direction of the Trend Seeker trend rating will work.

Rolling over is a simple matter of liquidating your current positions and entering new ones in the next contract month. For example, if I was long July Corn and wanted to rollover to the September contract I'd sell my July positions and buy new September positions.

Hope this helps.





greg in arizona asks (7:46:58 PM):

Hi Jim, I'm enjoying the Grain Report. A lot of great info there. Thanks!

Jim Prince Says:
Thanks, greg in arizona! Glad you're enjoying it! Remember the Grain Report blog too. I've posted several articles and videos there as well.



Technikel asks (7:48:35 PM):

Hi Jim...Just a comment... I traded for a few years using Ken's TWMPMM courses. I got emotionally involved in a trade, fell off my game plan, and dried up my trading account. 13 years later I'm back with a new attitude and the new tools which GBE has developed - I am very impressed with the program. Had information on options been as easy to access and use as they are now, I would likely have preseved my capital and not left trading for such a period of time. I am sure excited to get back in the game!!

Jim Prince Says:
Awesome, Technikel! And welcome back! Thanks for the kind words too!



peter asks (7:52:00 PM):

lumber always looks like there is not much volume. is it easy get in and out of futures contracts? at what amount of volume do you jump in or stay away?

Jim Prince Says:
It is low, peter compared to Corn or Soybeans. However, I've never had a problem. The amount I stay away from is like that of Pork Bellies or the EuroYen. Too low for my tastes.





Jim Prince Says:

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Jim from Kalamazoo, asks (7:59:36 PM):

I have been watching Eurodollar, but it seems to be in a channel. Any thoughts about when to go short? Any suggestions about what other markets to watch?

Jim Prince Says:

I have a 1-2-3 top formation marked on my chart (see below). But won't trade it until Trend Seeker confirms the down trend. Right now TS says the trend is neutral.

Be sure to check out my chart book at US Charts Online. I follow a lot of other markets there and you'll find my notes right on the charts.

September 2009 Eudollars






Jim Prince Says:

Well that's it for this month. I want to thank each of you for investing your time with me tonight.

Keep in mind, that you're not alone in your trading journey. US Charts Online, myself, and our wonderful Course Counselors (541-955-2885) are here to help you become the best you can be. On that note, be sure to check out my weekly video training lessons at: US Charts Online. This is a fantastic teaching tool and free to all GBE Members and US Chart Online subscribers!

Finally, make sure you have a plan prior to entering any trade and use stops to protect your trading capital. As a trader your capital is THE most valuable asset you have!

Plan your trade and trade your plan!

My next chat will be on Tuesday, July 14, 2009. God Bless and I look forward to seeing you then!






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