Chat Archives
Commodity Chat With Trader Jim! (tm) with Jim Prince with Jim Prince from 07/16/2009
Jim Prince Says:
Good evening! Trader Jim here. . . Thanks for investing your time with me and your fellow GBE Course Members this evening! Several of the Grains have made nice moves lower since we last met. But don't let the declines in these markets discourage your long-range plans (i.e. Grain Report). The proper mindset is that we'll potentially be offered better opportunities the lower these markets move. Anyway, we've seen nice moves recently in Corn, Soybeans, and Soybean Meal and recent triggers in the U.S. Dollar Index and Live Cattle. Plus we need to keep our eyes on the Euro FX, Sugar, Hogs to name a few. I also should mention that for the most part just about all of the markets mentioned above were (or are) featured in my nightly Premium Alert Service™ (PAS) videos. Just a reminder that the summer time is very often the slowest time of the year for trading opportunities because so many traders are on vacation etc. Thus, it's our job as traders to trade what we see and not what we think! In other words, try to find the best opportunities available. Other wise, we should sit on our hands and wait for setups to materialize. I encourage you to freely share any of your recent paper trading or real money market endeavors. Discussing your trading experiences lets others know they are not alone in this business, and it's a great way for everyone to learn from one another. Discussing your market experiences lets others know they are not alone in this business. So please feel free to share your excitement, enthusiasm, and dedication. It provides others hope and optimism of what's to come. I'd like send a big "Thank You" to Ken Roberts. Ken started introducing folks to the Greatest Business on Earth™ over 20 years ago. I was fortunate enough to not only be a student of Ken's, but I also had the great pleasure to work for him for 12+ years. I'm happy to be able to share with you what I've learned over the years. As we begin this evening's session, remember the reason these monthly chats are conducted is to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and to pick the brain of a 20+ year student of the markets. It's not the best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your Course materials. Please contact one of our Course Counselors if you need assistance with any of the introductory principles. They can be reached at 541-955-2885. This chat is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun and laughter along those lines, so much the better. NOTE!!! When commenting on one of the GBE strategies or US Charts, please identify WHICH STRATEGY AND/OR MARKET you used. Also, when relating trading experiences and/or results, please provide details: Futures contracts, options, option strike prices, options AND futures, real money or paper trading, and contract month etc. This really helps your fellow Course Members follow along and learn from your experiences. From time-to-time you may notice that I'll use a bit of "chat short-hand." If you see LOL for example, it means Laughing Out Loud. Or TS which means Trend Seeker. These are the two most prominent bits of short hand you'll see me use.
KEG09 asks (6:08:29 PM):
Hello Trader Jim, My first time here with you. My question is when trading options, why wouldn’t you buy a put and a call option at different strike points? While one would go and one would go down, the one going down can only go down so far while the one going up has an unlimited amount it can go up.
Jim Prince Says:
Hey KEG09! Thanks for joining us this evening. You can buy both puts and calls at the same time. That is a well known strategy as you are basically "bracketing" the current price action. The problem come in that both options are a "cost." So one of the options has to move far enough to offset the expense of the option that doesn't move. So basically you have to dig yourself out of a hole. I prefer outright put and call purchases as well as various spread strategies as explained in my new Advanced Options DVDs. Thanks again for joining us and welcome aboard!
Mike in NYC asks (6:10:23 PM):
Will US Charts Online offer stock charts sometime in the future? It would be great to have Interactive Stock Charts to markup with chart formations, etc. Would Trend Seeker also be able to rate the trend for Stocks?
Jim Prince Says: Hey Mike in NYC, we've had that idea on the back burner for awhile now. I think that eventually it will come to be. But right now it's still in the thought process.
Jim from Kalamazoo, asks (6:13:18 PM):
Sept corn has hit its initial target. What is the next target?
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Jim, Very long-term is a Wave Projection that comes in at 261-2. But I doubt that will be reached prior to contract expiration. A more realistic Profit Marker target comes in at 294-6. Hope this helps!
fairlane asks (6:16:30 PM):
orange juice im looking to go long what entry price should i be looking at?
Jim Prince Says:
Hi fairlane. I am actually watching for a chart pattern to form in September OJ. Since one has not developed as of yet, I couldn't tell you where I'd consider entering at this time. The key though is for you not to have to rely on somebody to tell you at what price to get in a market. That should be part of YOUR personal plan and should be based on some sort of chart reading - in my opinion. My thoughts. . . wait for a chart pattern to form and then consider an entry at that point.
Kristofor asks (6:17:54 PM):
When will the next Seminar take place in Grants Pass?
Jim Prince Says:
We haven't set a date as of yet, Kristofor. If I do decide to do one I imagine it will be in the late fall. Keep an eye on your email mailbox for info. down the line. Thanks for your interest!
KEG09 asks (6:20:51 PM):
I've notice that some of your charts that have been updated state that it is still in a channel or so, but when you look at the chart, it clearly shows that the price has moved outside the channel or formation. Im I looking at this wrong?
Jim Prince Says:
KEG09 all markets will advance and decline within a trading range (i.e. channel). But the markets that I currently have marked as being in trading ranges are in fact trading in channels. I'm not sure what you're seeing. Perhaps you could post the question again but this time mention a market or two that you're looking at. Thanks!
victruck asks (6:25:08 PM):
How long do you think you will continue to work at US Chart Co? You obviously can make sufficient money at home trading the markets.
Jim Prince Says:
As long as they'll have me, victruck. What more could a person want out of their professional life but doing what they want? I've been at this (starting with Ken) since 1993 and am still going strong. One of the great aspects of teaching is the fact that it helps me keep on my toes and analyze the markets in a very focused fashion. Plus the more I teach the more I learn ,and to top it off I've had the opportunity to meet a lot of very nice people. I don't have any plans of going anywhere. I love doing what I'm doing and can't think of anything better. Thanks for your question.
keith in chicago asks (6:28:13 PM):
Is there any sure fire indicator of a trend reversal ?
Jim Prince Says:
One thing you'll learn after being around this business for awhile is that there are NO guarantees, keith in chicago. There is no sure fire way, period. That said, the best process I've come up with is the use of chart patterns and confirming the trend reversals with Trend Seeker. But it's not flawless. Don't take my word for it though. Paper trade, paper trade, paper trade. Learn the 1-2-3 Strategy located in the Strategies section of this web site. That will go a long way towards educating you. Good question.
Bonita Joe asks (6:31:46 PM):
Mr. Jim - I have an old question. Do you put any significance in the length of a channel as to its eventual rise??? Also, I am in several spreads and, while I don't like the limitation on a rise, who cares when I pay next to nothing for it! Thanks for the continuous leadership! Bonita Joe...PS Did you see the home run contest????????
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Bonita Joe! I stick to the old rule of thumb in regards to possible targets associated with channels. The short-term target can simply be the height of the channel. A longer-term target is found by simply measuring the length of the channel and then applying that length to the breakout point. I first learned these techniques back in the 1980s and they still work to this day. Thanks for the kind words and, while I missed the full blow HR contest (I was relaxing at the coast away from TV), I did catch the highlights on ESPN. I'll watch it in full the next time I see that ESPN is broadcasting it.
Greg L asks (6:33:34 PM):
When you talk about moving your stops, to protect your profits- Do all broker provide this stop-loss feature?
Jim Prince Says:
Yes, Greg L. All brokers will let you move stops to wherever you like, as often as you like. It's a part of the business and any broker will be glad to do it for you. Thanks for joining us tonight.
junbec asks (6:37:57 PM):
Hi Jim this is my first time on the chat room do you have any advice on brokers what is a good amount to start a account with
Jim Prince Says:
Hi junbec! Welcome to the chat! We have a good working relationship with the brokers at Daniels Trading. I've met with all the brokers that we work with and they are a very knowledgeable bunch of guys and know our course materials. And to top it off the are very nice people too. Find out more about Daniels Trading via the link here on the left side of GBE site. Generally speaking a good amount to start with would probably be about $5,000. Much less than $2,500 and you are pretty limited as to what you can do. In fact, most brokerage firms won't open an account for less than $2,500. And of course you could start with more.
KEG09 asks (6:41:46 PM):
Live Cattle October 2009, You state that it is in a channel and that a break above would triger. Well it close above that today and the update or chart does not reference that.
Jim Prince Says:
I updated that chart this morning with my notes. The breakout took place during the trading day. There are 110 charts in my chart book and it takes me about and hour and a half to update just the daily charts. I just haven't gone back over the charts this evening. That said, the breakout did take place and a paper trade to the upside has been triggered. Good eye!
peter asks (6:46:15 PM):
Is there a basic mathematical equation to understand any commodity profit and loss. I would like to trade some of the financials but I don't because I can't understand when to get out of the market. Can't figure out the profit or loss.
Jim Prince Says:
Hey Peter, two things. First know that Trade Tracker at US Charts Online will do the calculations for you automatically. Second of all, be sure to watch the Training Video I did titled How To Calculate Profits and Losses. It runs 10:40 in length. I produced the video on 12/01/06. Search for and watch that video and I think it will help you a lot. Last but not least, give a Course Counselor a call at 541-955-2885, Monday through Friday between 8:30am and 5:00pm PT for assistance.
superdave asks (6:47:58 PM):
September Eurodollar is flirting with the top of the channel. Is there any room for real profit there? The 99.50 call was going for $100!! And Eurodollar closed at 99.45!!!
Jim Prince Says:
I hear ya, superdave! Doesn't seem like it's offering the best place to put your money. But who knows for sure? If you feel it's worth the risk, then you might consider going for it! I'm a bit reluctant, so I'll watch it from the sidelines. If you do trade it, please let me know how it works out for you.
Full House From Chan asks (6:51:00 PM):
Regarding your answer to Bonita Joe at 6:31:46 about target vs length of channel, etc. Wouldn't the relationship of the vertical to horizontal scale have to be the same on every chart for this to work?
Jim Prince Says:
Not at all, Full House From Chan. It works for any market (futures, stocks, indices etc.) regardless of the value or scale. I encourage you to paper trade this and even go back through the charts to see what I mean. This technique has worked long since before I was born. The neat thing is you don't have to be a rocket surgeon to use it!
wallace asks (6:53:44 PM):
Hello Trader Jim this is my first time on the site, but my question is when trading opions when your tarket is hit do you get the premium back as well as any profits made on the trade as in futures
Jim Prince Says:
Yes, wallace you basically get the premium back plus whatever profit the option made above what you paid for it. So if the option cost $500 and the market rallies and the option is now worth $1,500. If you liquidate the option at that price your profit is actually $1,000 because you have to subtract your cost of $500 (even though you get it back). Hope this is clear.
bwyli asks (6:57:28 PM):
When dealing with options, can a broker enter a stop-loss ? I thought that the stop-loss for options was mostly a "mental stop " between you and your broker.
Jim Prince Says:
Stop losses aren't available on options in the truest sense. However, you can place a stop order with some brokers (i.e. Daniels Trading) and they will keep it on a ticket and set an alert on their computer. Then if the option trades at that level, their computer alert will sound and they can execute the liquidation order for you at that time. Note that they do this on a not held basis. Which means they do their best to get you your price but there is no guarantee you'll exit at your exact price. Some brokerage firms may do this a bit differently, but that's it in a nutshell.
John from Farmington asks (6:59:52 PM):
Hello Trader Jim, I was wondering if you all plan on or are in the process of making available a make believe account for paper traders to practice from? I thought I heard you mention this on an earlier chat??? Thanks
Jim Prince Says:
I'm not completely sure what you mean, John from Farmington. US Charts Online already has Trade Tracker. It allows you to set up as many paper trading (or real money) accounts ad you like. I encourage you to go to the site and practice and play around with Trade Tracker. It's a great tool.
Tim.Davis asks (7:03:22 PM):
Speaking of the Live Cattle will the point in January effect the up trend?
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Tim.Davis! That's a point of resistance on the October chart. And while it could act as a roadblock, there are no other supporting points of resistance at that level. So if it's broken, it's possible prices will try to test the horizontal line (initial target) I've drawn at 95. Time will tell. . .
Florida TC asks (7:06:07 PM):
Jim, Glad to hear that you are going to be around a while. I have learned a lot from you. Question. When a trade is triggered and trend seeker is favorable,options "in the money" can be quite pricey. Is there a limit that you would recommend as to how far "out of the money" you would shop for more affordable options?
Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the nice words, Florida TC. Yes, my "limit" is found in the article titled Rule of Threes found in the ToolBox here on the GBE site. Be sure to read that article as it covers all the details. When options are quite expensive that's the time to consider the more advanced strategies found on this site. They can really help cut your "costs" down and still provide a nice profit potential.
Jim Prince Says:
Advanced Option Strategies for Any Market Condition 
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vacationman asks (7:15:28 PM):
Hey Trader Jim, I was looking at the Sept crude oil chart and it looks like a little bear flag has developed or is it too small to qualify?
Jim Prince Says:
You could consider that a bear flag, vacationman. A breakout of it will get you in to the market just ahead of the breakout of the channel I've marked on the chart. Here's what vacationman is talking about. . .
Jim Prince Says:
Learn to Paper Trade!

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LookingUp asks (7:21:58 PM):
Jim - You often say to preserve your capital and take profits which I call "paydays" but what is your advice for what I call the "payoffs" or the big runs that happen once a decade or so??? Just wondering on how to stay in the game for the "big one."
Jim Prince Says:
The best way to take part in those moves is to always trade multiple positions and set multiple targets. Also, you can consider adding to positions as the market develops additional formations during it's trend. Using something as simple as the MET can catch a HUGE part of any trending market. So even if one couldn't afford multiple positions, there is still the simple MET method that can get you, and keep you on board monster moves. Good question!
Ludwig asks (7:27:20 PM):
I'm new to the site n would like to know what's the best and fastest way to start making some money right away
Jim Prince Says:
Hi Ludwig, quite frankly this is not a get rich quick business. If you're in it for that, it's the wrong reason. While riches can come from this business, it takes time and practice. It's no different than going to law school or medical school. Lawyers and doctors become good at their crafts by practicing and fine tuning themselves and finding what works best for them. So practice by paper trading and continue to get better. If you put your heart and soul into it you can get what you want. Those that fake it get what they want also. I wish you the very best and encourage you to paper trade and stick with it.
ready2win asks (7:30:04 PM):
Hi Jim. Thanks for everything you do for us. Do you use paper charts in addtion to the on line charts? If so, how do you use them along with the online charts. Thanks
Jim Prince Says:
Thanks for the nice words, ready2win. Yes I do use the paper charts. I review each issue for a different perspective than what I get from the online charts. In fact, I have a copy sitting on the corner of my desk! Anyway, most of my trading decision are made via the electronic charts. But I do review and put some study time into the paper charts.
Russ-Malibu asks (7:32:57 PM):
Hey Jim, On June 25th dec wheat closed: 586-2. TS said that was is in a down trend. Today it closed: 559-6. That's a difference of 26-4 cents or $1,375. Instead of shorting the futures or buying a put (too much premium) I sold the 590 call and collected 57-4 cents. Today it looked like the bounce off of the bottom of the channel is starting to go against me so I bought back the call for 32-6 cents (because the call lost time value and the price of wheat fell). I made a profit of 24-6 cents, which is $1,237 less commission. It's true that the actual future contract would have been worth about $100 more today, but I didn't have to watch the computer all day and worry about every peak and valley of price in this extremely volatile market. Believe me, having the option smooth out the ride was well worth the $100 difference. By the way, TS still says the trend is down and strong...but I figure that I can't go broke taking a profit!!
Jim Prince Says:
Nice job, Russ-Malibu! And thanks for sharing the details of your trade with your fellow Course Members. While your strategy is a bit more advanced and not one I'd recommend to other Course Members, it just goes to show you that there are many different ways to make a profit in this business. Congrats!
Tim.Davis asks (7:35:21 PM):
Hello Jim. Thank You for your assistance. Using Trade Tracker how do you know what to put on the exit price?
Jim Prince Says:
You won't know your exit price, Tim.Davis until you liquidate the trade. You have to decided via a profit target or a stop loss as to where you'll exit the trade. One other thought just crossed my mind. . . you can also use the Profit/Loss calculator on the Interactive charts. (I believe I covered this in the video I mentioned earlier.) So be sure to give that a try too.
Marsha asks (7:36:32 PM):
I really don't have a question tonight, but wanted to thank you and your staff for all you do. Glad to hear you'll be around for along time to come. I hope the rest of us will be too - as profitable, happy traders.
Jim Prince Says:
Thanks Marsha! The Good Lord willing, we'll all be around for a long time!  Thanks for your nice comments too and thanks for stopping by tonight.
John from Farmington asks (7:41:10 PM):
Hi Trader Jim, Do you or have you ever traded the Delta Options Plan ?
Jim Prince Says:
I have, John from Farmington but it's not part of my regular trading plan. That said, it's a real good approach to trading options and something I recommend all traders give a look. You can find a link to the Delta Options Trading Strategy within the ToolBox here at the GBE site.
lcousino asks (7:44:19 PM):
Greeting from Portugal Trader Jim! My question is about the Strong 1 strategy. Can you use the same rule when the trend shows Extreme 1? Thanks a bunch.
Jim Prince Says:
Hey lcousino! Thanks for joining us from Portugal! Glad you're with us tonight. I don't know about using the Extreme rating as a strategy as I've never done it before. I designed the Strong 1 as you find it on the site and that's my limit as far as using Trend Seeker in this fashion. However, if it's something that interests you I encourage you to paper trade it and see how it works out. Then let me know your results down the road, I'd be interested in knowing what you learn. Thanks for stopping by tonight.
Gizmo asks (7:47:50 PM):
So, tomorrow would be a good time to sell a sept corn?
Jim Prince Says: If you're talking about the MET entry that was triggered Gizmo, then yes. Be sure to reference the September 2009 Corn chart and my notes on the chart for all the details.
Jim Prince Says:
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superdave asks (7:51:15 PM):
Ditto on the Trade Tracker...Great Tool!! It seems that Cocoa has never in the recent past been a predictable commodity(High Volatility). Any idea why?
Jim Prince Says:
The charts of Cocoa are a mess in my opinion, superdave. As per my notes on the September chart, I wouldn't touch that market with a ten foot poll. I think there are better places to put our money than in this market. Frankly, it's psycho. Why is Cocoa such a mess? Your guess is as good as mine.
John from Farmington asks (7:54:11 PM):
Hello Trader Jim, Is it possable to trade options in any market that doesnt list options outside the bid/ask option that a real market trader could do?
Jim Prince Says: Yep, you can trade markets that don't offer a bid/ask. Basically you can make the market yourself by placing a bid/ask yourself. There's no guarantee that your orders will get filled, but that's how you do it.
Tim.Davis asks (7:56:57 PM):
Where do we find the information on MET
Jim Prince Says: I produced a Training Video about the MET. You can find it at http://www.uschartco.com/ under the Training Video section. Look for the video dated 03/20/09 [Momentum Entry Technique (MET)].
Jim Prince Says:
Well that's it for this month. I want to thank each of you for investing your time with me tonight. Keep in mind, that you're not alone in your trading journey. US Charts Online, myself, and our wonderful Course Counselors (541-955-2885) are here to help you become the best you can be. On that note, be sure to check out my weekly video training lessons at: US Charts Online. This is a fantastic teaching tool and free to all GBE Members and US Chart Online subscribers! Finally, make sure you have a plan prior to entering any trade and use stops to protect your trading capital. As a trader your capital is THE most valuable asset you have! Between chats please stay in touch with me via both my blog and Twitter. You can read my blog by clicking here. And you can follow my Twitter posts (a.k.a. tweets) by clicking here. Plan your trade and trade your plan! My next chat will be on Tuesday, August 11, 2009. God Bless and I look forward to seeing you then!
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