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Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from 02/11/2003

teAs we begin this evening's session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It's not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your TWMPMM Manual. That's what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I've got a Partagas 150 Limited Edition fired up, here's our plate of freshly baked oatmeal cookies, the coffee's poured, so let's talk commodities!


Wario asks (6:12:04 PM):

Mifflinburg, PA. Hi Ken! Thanks for all that you do. Are you short Live Cattle yet? I was looking to short April Live Cattle, with targets of 73.92 on the daily 50% and 71.12 on a weekly 50%. My problem is that June is trading at a discount to April and June settled today at 71.275. If Live Cattle do not drop in price until June becomes the front month, it will have shown a 50% retracement on the weekly charts. How are (or would) you play that one?

I'm short, Wario. Also check out those (cheap) puts . . . . Thanks!


Robb asks (6:13:10 PM):

Ken, do you recommend trading a 1-2-3 without a stop loss?

No (unless you've hedged the trade with an opposing option for protection --- otherwise, you're looking at UNlimited risk). In trading, it's good to have a healthy yellow streak down your back!


punter asks (6:14:16 PM):

Hi Ken,Ed from East Hanover New Jersey. I think buying Eurodollar puts at the 94.50 and 94.00 level is a total no-brainer. Do you agree?

Absolutely, punter. Also check out some closer-to-the-money puts --- everything in Eurodollars is cheap now!


Doc Com asks (6:21:16 PM):

I have noticed that the margin/maint. changes, sometimes radically as in coffee recently. Can my broker change these amounts only at start up, or can he change them midstream? If so, one can be forced out of a position just when it is getting good.

Yes, that's right, Doc Com. The Exchanges (and then the individual brokerages) can (and do) change margin/maint. amounts anytime they want (even "midstream" as you put it). When margin/maint. amounts are raised, that's a sign of higher volatility. (Just one more reason why options are so attractive . . . .) Thanks!


Chuck from Mississip asks (6:23:09 PM):

Hi Ken,Is a weekly profit level derived from, the last "Five" years of a commodity charts? Can it be more or less, or is "Five" a magical number? Chuck

No, "five" is not a magical number, Chuck. You can always get your 50% profit targets from Monthly charts only if you like (it's just usually easier to see them on Weekly charts).


LT Hayden, Idaho asks (6:25:57 PM):

I'm just starting with the options course. I looked at the weekly and monthly chart on Canadian dollars and did the 50% calculation for a long term gain. I bought 2 7000 calls for December 03 Canadian Dollars. Am I anywhere close in my reasoning?

Right on, LT Hayden! I see the Monthly 50% target as 7600, and the 50//50 is 6900, so you're right where the action is! Good goin'!


Gary asks (6:27:02 PM):

why do the strike prices in options not always show a progressive amount of dollars in the same direction, example crude oil 3900-470,3950-450,4000-480,4100-370,4200-460

That's how the Exchanges set up the parameters, Gary. (And these, too, are subject to change at any time and without notice.) Thanks.


richman asks (6:27:47 PM):

Hi Ken! Last chat I told you about the $$ I made with a Cocoa call, well this month it's $$ in Sugar. I went long back in July with 2 800 calls, I cashed one in at the weekly 50% for profit and I'm holding the 2nd ( for awhile )to see if it goes up higher! I'm also short cattle and long coffee

You da man, richman! A textbook trade . . . . Thanks!


WEANS asks (6:29:51 PM):

AT WHAT POINT DO YOU CANCEL YOUR OPTION ORDER WHEN TIME IS RUNNING OUT -- AND YOU HAVE NOT BEEN FILLED YET? FOR EXAMPLE, IF I WAS TRYING TO BUY OPTIONS FOR MARCH 03 WOULD I XCL MY OPEN ORDERS NOW AND LOOK FURTHER OUT?

Yes, Weans, and then cancel those open orders standing now when you find the farther-out options. This will vary from market to market. For example, you can find coffee and gold options a year or more out in time, but you'll never find currency options going out that far. Good question. Thanks!


Jerri--WI asks (6:30:47 PM):

Ken, Given your budget, do you invest more money in long postions rather than short positions, since you know how far it is to zero, as opposed to the "skys the limit" approach of a short position? I personally have more positions short, than long. I was just interested in the way you trade. These chats mean a lot to me. Thank-you Ken.

Thanks, Jerri. Yes, I'm long more markets than I'm short for the reason you mention (which is why Ted Warren said he NEVER went short!).


kathrynkay7 asks (6:33:25 PM):

Hi Ken! I love the Greatest American Business course! One thing I don't understand - where do I look to find prices of options instead of futures contracts themselves?

Thanks, Kathrynkay7! Your question gives me a perfect reason to repeat my previous NOTICE!!!: You receive 2 weeks of on-line charts at U.S. Charts FREE for E-mailing us your name and address at info@kenroberts.net with "Free Charts" as the subject. Don't miss out on this limited FREE offer! I'm confident you'll love U.S. Charts on-line not only for charting, but for option price monitoring too. Welcome aboard!


dtdmother asks (6:35:08 PM):

Bangor, PA. Hi Ken! I've had your course for approximately thirteen years and have just gotten off of my butt and started putting it to use. I recently purchased five calls of May '03 Light Sweet Crude and realized about a ninety percent profit. My question is this... My broker recommended I use my profits to purchase three June '04 calls of eurodollars, three month at a strike price of 9825 and a premium of $29. I want to stay in options for a while so that I don't burn my entire margin account too quickly. What do you think of this one?

No, dtdmother, what do YOU think of it? Don't let any broker (or even me) sway your trading plans. Sounds to me like you're doing great, so stick with YOUR plans. Thanks!


Mattituck Mike asks (6:36:24 PM):

hi ken...silver is giving me a lesson in patience, but its going to 575...alert the media...I'm collecting silver minis like a squirrel collects chestnuts. thanks

Yep, Mattituck Mike, you got it. Silver seems to do this AT LEAST once each year (and I'm glad you're on board).


aboz asks (6:37:59 PM):

Hi Ken, what are you seeing in Natural Gas, and gold

I'm waiting for a setback in Natural Gas now, and I'm still long Gold.


Little Nemo asks (6:40:18 PM):

hi Ken, just want to say thank you verymuch for the support and the knowledge that you've given to me through your course. Been with your course and support team for 6 years and going strong. I feel so grateful to have the know how for this business.

Thank you, Little Nemo. In fact, I was just telling my wife this evening how much we offer for so little. I know it's patting my own Team on the back, but what a great thing this Course is!!!


PatientlyPersistent asks (6:43:30 PM):

Hey,Ken. With the current formation on Corn and Wheat, am I too late to go long? If not, where and at what point should I now enter? Also my dilema on my March Coffee, should I roll over to July or Sept. My broker says July. What is the opinion of the expert commodity guru?

You're absolutely not too late on Corn and Wheat, PatientlyPersistent. Trade them as you would any other market (and be sure to search for cheap call options). As to your Coffee, I always go for time, so I'd look at the September contract. Thanks!


LovinCommodities asks (6:47:28 PM):

Corona, CA....Soon to be Carson City, NV. Thanks to Commodity trading, I am able to get out of this government, traffic and smog infested state!!! Thanks for all you do Ken. When can we expect to see the new course and website. Looking forward to your new material!! Today, I made money in pork bellies, and also went long silver. Can't wait to make some money in silver also. My strategy is buying lots and lots of contracts and holding it for a short time, and getting out. Works for me, so I know I am on the right track...thanks for teaching me that ken!! 401K...HA!!! Give me a commodity chart anyday!! Thanks again Ken...You're the BEST!!

Thank YOU, LovinCommodities. I'm so glad you're escaping the People's Republic of California. I was lucky enough to be able to get out too. (It just gets weirder and weirder there, doesn't it?! I especially loved the recent story of the convicted felon in prison getting the heart transplant over all productive citizens on the list. And you California taxpayers paid the $1,000,000 bill . . . .) Call a Course Counselor for info on the new Course and an update on the new (unbelievable) website service. Thanks again!


gil asks (6:48:20 PM):

Hi Ken. In the grains or cotton the month representing the new crop may have different formations.If the front month is Mar.(driver)would you ever use July (new crop) as the "driver" instead? Love these conversations, thanx.

No, gil, to me that's still fundamental information (which I ignore). If the old crop's rallying, the new crop will too . . . . Thanks!


Da_ConTrariaN asks (6:50:37 PM):

Just want to Thank You and let everyone know how fun, easy, and profitable this business is :o), I'm up over 40k for this yr already and will pay for my carribean cruise with profits this week alone.Shorted live cattle last Thursday: profit 2,152.50 as of today, Shorted Swiss Franc last Thursday, profit of 4,157.50 as of today..... Thanks for changin my life Ken.... plan on Buyin a Harley V-ROD, when I get back from my cruise in April

Alright, Contrarian! Way to go! Let me give you a tip: Don't waste your time (and a lot of money) in the Carribean. Go to Key West instead! The service is so bad in the Caribbean that they HAVE to add a 15% tip to every bill or no one would ever voluntarily tip there! But if you've already bought your ticket, sorry: I didn't mean to cause you any conflict. Thanks again and keep on tradin'!


Barry asks (6:51:15 PM):

HI Ken, How easy is it to find options that are less than $200? Barry.

It's SO easy, Barry, that you won't believe it until you try it. Which brings me (again) to my special announcement this evening: NOTICE!!! You receive 2 weeks of on-line charts at U.S. Charts FREE for E-mailing us your name and address at info@kenroberts.net with "Free Charts" as the subject. Don't miss out on this limited FREE offer!


Nova Scotia Scott asks (6:54:45 PM):

Hi Ken and Crew! 1st a paper trading plug! My 1st mth, made some hastey mistakes, down $1,928. The next 2 mths up $10,246 [all with $10k paper account]. Ken do you think sugar started another shakeout today or should I be locking in profits, up $3693.40 at today's close. One more question please. . . when using an option instead of a stop, how do you best protect accumulating profits?

Sugar's hit its Weekly 50% target, so I'd be taking some profits (but hanging on if you can with a few contracts/options for a possible Monthly 50% move). When using an option instead of a stop, the best way I know to help lock in accumulating profits is to use some of those profits to purchase (hopefully cheap) puts with higher and higher strike prices --- thus, trailing put options. Hope this helps. Thanks.


trouter asks (6:57:19 PM):

trouter from calgary canada, good evening Ken and staff. Thanks for these chats and the videos, they help greatly! Just a reminder to everyone about "the brokers". I trusted mine a little too much and got burnt for it !Got most but not all my cash back. A hard lesson to learn. I went and got another broker ( my old one got fired )and it's strictly business with him. So now I'm back into "the only real business" with a few scars but very much the wiser. Thanks to you and your courses and chats -- I'm in the the "money " again! P.S. Cattle prices are going down, right?

That's how I see it, trouter --- DOWN! And let me thank you for everyone online with us this evening for sharing your broker experience with us. I know it helps to hear someone else's story.


Jim from Kalamazoo, asks (6:57:59 PM):

I can't believe how high gold is. Too bad I wasn't patient enough. it took almost 4 years to make that move.

And they ALWAYS make the moves, Jim! We know that, yet it's so difficult to wait . . . .


TTJ asks (7:00:20 PM):

tony from hamilton on canada..........Ken.....whats your view on cotton it appears it broke above the channel & high on the daily chart never-the-less we are thinking of going long?, also rice appears to be at a low especially on the monthly charts. i'm banking on a high of $7.00, am i dreaming.

You're correct about Cotton. I'm still long and waiting for the Monthly 50% to get hit. Right on in Rice! Yes, at least 7! Thanks.


RJC asks (7:01:24 PM):

HI KEN: WELL AFTER ABOUT 15 MONTHS OF WAITING FOR ONE OF MY TRADES TO MOVE IN MY FAVOR, SUGAR FINALLY CAME THROUGH. I HAVE TWO OCT 03 CALLS WITH STRIKE PRICES OF 850, SO THEY ARE JUST IN THE MONEY NOW.BOY OH BOY TALK ABOUT NEEDING PATIENCE IN THIS BUSINESS!! ITS STRANGE HOW I MADE ABOUT $7300 IN SUGAR BACK IN 2000 - 20001 ON 4 OPTIONS WITH THE SAME STRTIKE PRICES. I ONLY WISH I COULD GET TO THE POINT WHERE I COULD DO THIS AND RETIRE FROM STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING. THANKS FOR SENDING ME THAT FIRST MAILER.

Thank YOU, RJC. And thanks, too, for the lesson in patience. It's a BIG lesson, isn't it?!


NYtrader asks (7:02:52 PM):

Hey Ken, first off, thanks so much for this great info. It's been profound. I look forward to meeting you one day. I just bought my first real money option (two 9800 sept eurodollar puts for 5 points each). I am waiting to get filled on two july 145 coffee calls. It feels great to have finally "pulled the trigger". I was wondering why there is only one euro yen put available on only the front month. Thanx again.

Thanks, NYtrader! Yes, isn't that interesting: only ONE strike price available in the EuroYen???!!! Just goes to show you that NO ONE'S WATCHING. (And that's the VERY BEST time to be watching . . . .)


eagle asks (7:03:45 PM):

Warwick,Rhode Island, Been trading options for a while. Still learning something new from every trade. I am currently short live cattle and eurodollars. Recently made money in cocoa. I placed a limit order for July crude oil puts, as I feel this market is coming down after this war scare is over. Trading is a fascinating experience, especially using options. I sleep well at night. There are no surprises. Thanks Ken

Thanks, Eagle. You sound very comfortable with your trading and that's right where you want to be. Glad you joined us this evening.


flag asks (7:06:04 PM):

I'm still playing around with 123 formations and channels. When I come to this forum, there's a lot of options talk. I feel it's time for me to learn more about the options game. Is it a high percentage of course member who eventually move into options, or do many stay with the 123 formations and channels, going long and short?

Thanks, Flag. I'd say a high percentage of Course Members get into options, but this is just my observation --- nothing scientific. My advice, however, is that ALL Course Members should be taking a long, hard look at the options market too.


Jon Here in Leftylan asks (7:07:10 PM):

Hi Ken, Jon from Leftyland here. If the Daily profit point in a certain commodity isn't very profitable, (e.g. a narrow sideways channel for over a year) do you skip it altogether and just go for the weekly and monthly?

Yes, Jon-I'm-glad-you're-not-a-lefty, go for the biggest moves you can find on Weekly and Monthly charts. Thanks!


Ruxpin asks (7:08:22 PM):

Ken, I am:long may rice, long april mini coffee, short april cattle, short june eurodollars, and short cocoa. What do you think of these positions??Thanks for your reply..YOU Da Man...Ted Waldman- Boca Raton, FL

Thanks, Ruxpin. Every trade and position you listed here looks right-on to me! (Do you agree with what I recommended regarding Key West?)


stpaulies69 asks (7:09:44 PM):

Craig in Florida writes,When bidding half for a cheap out of the money option in a far out month, if it takes a month to get filled, is it due to the fact that a certain amount of time value has been eaten away and your bid for half of the asking price now becomes more favorable to the seller of the option? Or is it that there may be a seller that is willing to take less than the going premium for the option?

Could be either, or a blend of both, Craig. But while your bid is sitting there, keep monitoring even farther out options in case you want to cancel your bid and bid for more time. Good one. Thanks!


amber asks (7:10:12 PM):

I am happy to say I made $40K in Canola. Thanks Ken. I learned a lot about stop loss placements from paper trading.

Thank YOU, amber. Great goin'!


LMAC asks (7:11:12 PM):

Ken, This is the start of my third year buying options in Coffee. Do you find it's a good idea to start increasing the quantity of Options for each month if possible? Statistically speaking Coffee has got to be taking off soon.

It all depends upon your budget, LMAC, but yes, that makes sense. And I agree: Technically speaking, Coffee's DUE . . . .


Drew in Atlanta asks (7:12:58 PM):

Hi Ken & All,I know the euroyen presents a great oppty considering the market is at such an extreme and theoretically the front month can climb only another 8 or so points (risking $200 per contract). Been short futures contracts in the euroyen since Aug 2001 and still waiting for the big drop that is surely to come. After making double tops, seems recently that the market has climbed to new contract highs and I'm trying not to get discouraged. Utilizing your trading methods has brought me success, but it has also taught me how to stick to the plan and "patience" and needless to say the euroyen is my best example for having patience. Thanks for all that you do. I'm learning more than how to make money.

Thanks, Drew (and please, don't call me Shirley!). You've gained priceless lessons, but better yet, you're practicing them. Thanks for sharing this with everyone. Like you, I'm STILL short and Euroyen and hanging in there. The fall WILL come . . . .


Blues asks (7:15:36 PM):

Referring to comment by LT Hayden re: Canadian $, I took options course before it was revamped, I understand where the 50% on the monthly came from but what do you mean by 50//50 at 6900?

The "50//50" is a simple strategy I use to teach choosing strike prices in my new Greatest American Business options course. For example, the 50% target on the Canadian Dollar Monthly chart is 7600. That's my profit/exit target. To choose a strike price, I start at 50% of that 50% target (the 50//50) which is 6900. If this isn't clear, please call a Course Counselor for tutoring. Thanks!


christmas asks (7:18:35 PM):

Hi Ken, Michele from Canada (cccold here). I'm new to your chatroom. Your reply to aboz...what do you mean by you are "waiting for a setback" in Natural Gas. Also, I was thinking of puts in Unleaded Gas and have calculated a weekly 50% at .775...does this sound right?

Hello, Michele, thanks for joining us. First of all, Natural Gas just hit its Weekly 50% target, so a setback is likely. You're correct in looking at puts in Unleaded Gas for the same reason: it's rallied and is due for a setback too. So, yes, what you say sounds exactly right. Thanks!


Nova Scotia Scott asks (7:20:12 PM):

Ken, Opening my Real account this week. Coffee still shows very low on the weekly and mthly. If I want to use futures [up $13,500 on paper and down $3,330 with options], how much of a retracement should I wait for? It seems to be channeling around the daily now?

I'd say to plan for a drop to the bottom of the channel would be prudent. And I still like those cheap calls in coffee vs. futures contracts. Thanks.


The Jack of Trades-- asks (7:21:16 PM):

Hello, Ken! Just checking in; I missed last month's chat, but thank goodness for the archives -- they're a course in themselves! How about Gold doing a textbook retracement?! I'm just thrilled to see this stuff work over and over again. Thanks for sharing the most simple way in the world to make money! Well, until next time...

Welcome back, Jack of Trades! Glad you joined us again. Yes, isn't this The World's One Perfect Business???!!!


Ruxpin asks (7:23:07 PM):

Ken, what is up with Eurodollars, are rates ever gonnal go up?

Yes, Ruxpin, what's up with Eurodollars is that they're UP! Can't wait for higher interest rates (boy, that sounds screwey, doesn't it?) . . . . We are contrarians, aren't we?!


Garry asks (7:23:47 PM):

Hi Ken, what do you think about lumber? Garry

I'm long, Garry. (And after today's limit-down move, I'm certainly not board!)


Jojo asks (7:24:44 PM):

Ken, Do you have a way of keeping track of your trades while they are 'in force?'

Yes, my broker faxes me my "position" sheet each week showing updates. It's the same thing subscribers do with the "Trade Tracker" feature at U.S. Charts on-line. Thanks!


Stan from Roseburg asks (7:26:39 PM):

Hi Ken, I just received your options course yesterday. I'm taking a break from your first 50% retracement video. You say that if a futures month expires all you have to do is switch to another contract month and it will cost only the brokers commission. What if there is a difference in price of the contract months. Thank you. I plan on coming down to see you before I start trading for real next month. See ya soon.

Hello, Stan, and welcome! Yes, come on down and see us! Your broker will place what's actually called a "switch" order to close out your nearby contract and enter a farther-out contract month. There usually will be a difference in price between the two months and your profit or loss will simply roll forward with the trade. Thanks.


rktect asks (7:27:20 PM):

hiya Ken......have you guys talked grains yet tonight ?? Apparently the corn report wasn't as bad as some had thought, and wheat's lookin' sweet. Any insight, oh Zen one ??...lol... ;-D

What's a "corn report", rktect?


Howard at Austin Tex asks (7:28:41 PM):

Ken, A couple of months ago, you mentioned in a chat that beanoil was going to go down (retracement). This was before any formation really appeared and it was just starting to hint at going down. How did you know ? I was amazed at how well you predicted this. Also, I did well going long in Rice and got out before the retracement. Now long in Corn, are you ? Thanks for all your help !!

Yes, Howard, I'm long Corn too. I knew about beanoil the same way you knew to get out of Rice before the retracement. It's ALL on the charts . . . . Good one!


Ninja asks (7:31:42 PM):

Hi guysI currently have three june crude $40 calls and am up about 100%Would you take some profits now or wait and see if the market goes higher? Do you think stupid war news/noise will drive prices higher? THANKS

Yes, Ninja, stupid war news/noise absolutely could drive prices higher (or lower!), but that doesn't phase me: I watch my charts only. Yes, after such a move as Crude's made, I'd take some profits (maybe two of your three calls) and either prepare to trade, or simply wait for, a retracement back down. (And if it doesn't continue on higher, you're still covered --- but still bragging about your banked profits). Thanks!


Dr Mike asks (7:32:47 PM):

Recently liquidated most of my July 03 700C Sugar options for 5X what I paid for them. Still own Oct 800 calls. Should I consider puts for a retracement? Are you still long? Thanks for your courses. Following the principals you teach keeps me profitable.

Alright, Dr. Mike. Thanks! Yes, I'm still long. It would be prudent to at least start pricing puts for the possible retracment. Thanks.


Daniel asks (7:33:26 PM):

Richfield, PA....I am Long Mr Rice. Will you take profits at the daily 50%? or hold out for the weekly 50%?

I'll hold out for the Weekly 50%, but that may not be what's best for anyone else. Remember: Follow YOUR own plan. Thanks.


DREEM CATCHER asks (7:36:00 PM):

HI KEN IF YOU'VE BEEN PRICING A MARKET FOR OPTIONS FOR 2 WEEKS OR SO BUT THE MARKET DURING THIS TIME HAS MOVED BUT YOU HAVEN'T PURCHASED ANY OPTIONS. WOULD YOU RECALCULATE YOUR STRIKE PRICES?THANKS AGAIN FOR ALL YOU DO.I'VE GOT ALL YOUR COURSES AND TAPES ETC. AND IT'S A PLEASURE TO KEEP GOING BACK AND RETUNING MYSELF AND WHAT'S REALLY AMAZING IS YOU NEVER SEEM TO GET ANY OLDER.

Thanks, Dreem Catcher, aren't videos amazing? I never get older in them! (But you should see me in person now . . . . It would scare you! In fact, that's why I quit doing seminars! I was YOUNG when I first found the commodity markets . . . .) I wouldn't recalculate my strike prices if the 50% target(s) hasn't been hit yet. And I'll NEVER chase a market.


Susan asks (7:37:10 PM):

Hi Ken, I have just started the course, read everything at least once but I/m ready to start paper trading and can't seem to find a format to follow to get started. The really simple stuff, like how to choose what commodities to follow. Thanks

Hello, Susan, and thanks for joining us this evening. Call a Course Counselor and have him/her help you get started on this first step. It's an important one (perhaps THE MOST important one . . . .). Thanks!


ihateny asks (7:42:44 PM):

Hey Ken, When you talk about(cheap) options closer to the money,do you still use $250 and under for the amount you would spend or do you compare the price to the option history as to what is cheap for that option ?

I'm not being a smart-aleck when I say "yes" in answer to your questions. Ponder this, Grasshopper . . . .


Ninja asks (7:43:18 PM):

HEY KEN,Some more real world experience: Traded my brokers advice twice,resulttwo losses. For anyone still not sure if the charts tell the truestory, paper trade. It works and I also found the Ted Warren ACTcourse to be of great value. TRY IT YOU-ALL LIKE IT !!! THANKS

Well said, Ninja. You da man!


The Dust Rhino asks (7:45:43 PM):

Ken, hey....reading your novel again..(3rd time) everytime i read a rich mans secret i get more out of it....anyway my question is. . . im short march bean oil from 2120...im up also cause i rolled over from january and made 2000.00 there...i am contemplating shorting again another month but since bean oil is close to its weekly...should i just be happy where im at and let it ride out...thanks.....Dust rhino in west palm beach

I see the Weekly 50% target as 1870, Dust Rhino, which could get hit in a short amount of time, so I think I'd just hang on with your March contract (LTD is 3/14/03, so you want to be out by 3/7/03.) Thanks!


allham asks (7:47:11 PM):

Thanks tons!! I'm long gold contracts and my question is: Would you have taken profit at the new #1 top or would you wait for the weekly 50%? Thanks again for all you do.

I would (and AM) waiting for the Monthly 50% of 565. Thank YOU, allham!


optionisnow asks (7:47:47 PM):

Bloomsburg, PA I haven't received any information on the GreatestAmerican Business course. Is this info on your company website?

Not yet, optionisnow, but it will be soon. (Or just call a Course Counselor.) Thanks!


ML asks (7:48:52 PM):

I understand how you trade futures contracts without stops in a market like Sugar, since it is relatively close to zero. But how do you do that same thing in markets like the Currencies, which are never close to zero?

Ah ha! Grasshopper. You see the light . . . . That's why OPTIONS are so valuable to us traders.


Eric in Fort Worth, asks (7:49:57 PM):

Ken, even though your recommendation to Robb earlier was to not trade without a stop loss, in your videos you teach trading without a stop loss, and you've said at other times, "if you're stopped out, you lose". Could you please clarify this? Personally, there have been numerous times when using a stop kicked me out of the market shortly before it made a good move. I wasn't in on the move because psychologically I didn't want to get back in and risk another loss!

Exactly, Eric. (Please see my previous reply also.)


The Dust Rhino asks (7:50:16 PM):

ken, i ride my motorcycle to key west once a month...there is no other place like it!

Thanks!


Ruxpin asks (7:51:46 PM):

Yes. Did some engineering work in St. Thomas, the service is bad, nice scenery though. Key west is great. . . just get ready for a long road trip. Getting married soon and going on a cruise to East Caribbean, despite the service. Hope there is an internet link there so I can check my charts!!!

Yes, and try to stop off in Havana if you can manage it (but don't buy any Cuban cigars except from a factory or factory store --- there are more counterfeit cigars than real ones out there now!).


sugarforall asks (7:55:19 PM):

Hi Ken, Sugar has been sweet! The US Dollar has fallen off a cliff. Do you think we should be looking for a 50% retracement, or a continued move to 100.00. I was looking at a 92 target on the weekly with in-the-money puts.

We're beyond the Dollar's Weekly 50% and at its Monthly 50% levels, so we may see a rally in the Dollar soon. I'd price calls now . . . .


fathog asks (7:57:34 PM):

Good evening Ken & crew, Do you find the ROI in futures to be better than options? That has been my expirience so far. Have been trading real money for almost 3 years and this one is so far the best. I made over 20k last month. No huge trades, all ranging from $2200 to a high of $4500. I've been long cotton for almost two years.....it might just happen soon....thanks for introducing me to comodities!

Thanks fathog! The strong message I'm reading between the lines of your comments this evening is this: You've learned PATIENCE! Good goin'! Personally, I have a better ROI in futures contracts but many, many Course Members tell me they find Options generate more. Ultimately, however, it's all up to YOU!


rktect asks (7:57:56 PM):

hi Ken...you know, I've often wished trading were simple. But then, I look at a chart, for instance gold, and realize had I followed what the chart told me back in say October, gotten one contract and maybe pyramided my way on up...sigh...alas...well paper trading definitely points the way, and it really is all that simple !Thanks

Well said. Thanks!


bonedoc asks (7:59:05 PM):

Ken--I have had good trades in feeders,corn,gold, and even rice--however, my overall account is only up modestly because of losses in eurodollars (in which I am short) and euroyen (in which I am very,short)--as my losses in euroyen have mounted, I have increased my short position, which is now over 100 contracts short in June and September--is this an acceptable strategy?

Absolutely, bonedoc, IF you can back those contracts with cash. If so, short on! The EuroYen WILL someday plummet! (I'm banking on it.)


Carribean Craig asks (8:01:07 PM):

Ken, my account is getting quite large near 200k, my broker keeps wanting me to buy treasury notes, bills whatever. Is this amount insured and do most investors buy these things ?

I know I do, Carribean Craig. May as well earn that interest on YOUR money while it sits there. "Insured"? Only by the "good faith and credit" of our government, but then again, if the government ever defaults on T-bill and notes, the whole world is in worse trouble than it seems like today.


Triple Nickle asks (8:01:58 PM):

Do you think cocoa and soybean oil will make their weekly 50% retracement back down? I am also short April Live Cattle.

I KNOW they will, Triple Nickle. (And that --- patience --- seems to have been our theme here this evening.) Yes, I'm short Live Cattle too. Thanks!


zenmaster asks (8:02:54 PM):

Ken - with oil at almost 35.00 , I've been looking at puts. Am I premature?

I don't think so, Zenmaster. I'd be pricing possible puts now.


Daniel asks (8:03:37 PM):

Ricfield, PA....Thanks Ken. I love trading. I paper traded for about 3 months and was up 10K. Now I started with Real Money in Rice. What a thrilling ride. (and it just started!) I have a sell stop in on LC April at 77. Thanks so much for sharing your trading rules with us. I will come see you some day!

Thanks Daniel. Yes! Come on out!


christmas asks (8:04:34 PM):

We are short on cattle (live) futures...just started TWMPMM II..options sound great! Would it be a good idea to also get some put options?

Well at least begin pricing them, Christmas. This way you can compare what options do vs your short futures position. Thanks!


Barry asks (8:04:53 PM):

Barry asks:Hi Ken, in your introductory pamphlet, you make reference to buying options for less that $200. How easy is it to find these?

VERY easy, Barry . . . .


Jack Bee asks (8:06:12 PM):

Ken, Do you have any plans to make data from past years available on-line? It seems that being able to find "seasonals" would be helpful.

Not enough demand (or need) for this past data, Jack Bee, and I think you'll find (as I did) that "seasonals" aren't. Thanks!


Mirror-Resilverer asks (8:09:51 PM):

Jason from IND. Do you ever get stopped out with a loss or do you hold your position until your goal or profit is realized ?

REFLECT on this, Jason: The goal in trading is to do just as you said: hang on through all moves against you until the market does what you know it will do. (Think of the cattle rancher I often tell about.) So do you have enough cash to hold on through all dips and drops? If not, you MUST consider options, for they allow you to do just that. Then you can look yourself in the mirror!


asks (8:11:03 PM):

Hi Ken and Crew: Whew what a month, eh? Sugar hitting its weekly 50%and now beyond, Natural gas hitting its W 50%(5.93),and beyond and Gold going all the way to 384 to hit its 2nd monthly target at 383.25, next target 490.75 on the way..... I sold one of my Jul'03 Copper 92C for 75pts the other day when it hit 79.50, so now I have covered my cost of doing business and I still have 4+ months for it to go one up....in other news, I am about to get filled on some more Cocoa Puts now that it hit that new high of 2420...And with Crude and Unleaded going up I am shopping for my Puts while no one is watching.....except all of you out there in net land.... Had to sell one of my May Coffee futures contracts yesterday so I could free up some $$$ to buy more Cof Calls (sure are getting some bargains). That margin sure takes up some option money but then the profit of 1420.00 will buy a lot too.... I love this!!! Having the time of my life!! Thanks to you and your counselors and US Chart Co.

!!!


Lynne asks (8:12:13 PM):

Cornelius, Oregon. I was long wheat and trailed my stop up and ended up making $25K when I was stopped out of my position in September. Wheat never hit it's monthly target, dropped down and has just completed a 1-2-3 bottom. Is it time to go long again? Did you ever get out of your long position or have you remained long through this whole drop?

I've stayed long, but now would be a great time to consider re-entering. Thanks and good goin'!


Mike in IL asks (8:12:37 PM):

hey Ken, As always thanks! Are you buying puts in oats?

Not yet, but I'm pricing them . . . .


MakeYourOwnLuck asks (8:12:56 PM):

Hi Ken. I recently signed on to your online chart service and want to thank you so much! Trade Tracker has made my paper trading as exciting as the real thing. Thanks for doing this Ken.

You're welcome. Thank YOU!


Cindy asks (8:13:31 PM):

I'm a four year course member and just renewed my TWMPMM 1 course and received the free bonus pak the companion pack, it was the only one I had not taken yet, what insight! It is certainly my favorite so far. I never stop learning about this business, thanks for creating all the courses, and making them available for practically nothing. After working 20 years at a grocery store I have to pinch myself to believe my profits are real. They are! Thanks Ken!!!!

Thanks, Cindy!


rktect asks (8:14:07 PM):

Ken, here's a bit of an odd question. . . do you ever see yourself not trading? I mean have you considered calling it quits and kickin' back somewhere -- supposedly having put your money in some sort of secure vehicle? (Is there such a thing?)

Never, that never entered my mind!


lude asks (8:15:59 PM):

Do you like the channel Corn is making? I am thinking of bracketing it. Sound like good logic?Thanks, Ken

Well that's it for another month. Here are my favorite web sites if you're interested: www.wildlifeimages.org; www.LP.org ; www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com. ; (new!) www.historictrees.org. ; (even more new!) www.foxnews.com/oreilly. My next chat will be Tuesday, March 11th. Also remember Matt's stock and commodity chat next Tuesday, February 18th. As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night!






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