Chat Archives
Let's Talk Trading (tm) with Ken Roberts
from 03/11/2003
As we begin this evening's session, let me state the reason I conduct these monthly chats: to provide you the opportunity to ask questions and pick the brain of a successful, long-time, real-money trader. It's not the highest and best use of our limited time here together for me to define basic terms and explain introductory principles taught in your TWMPMM Manual. That's what my Course Counselors are here for... Now is the time for you to use me to help you apply the basics you're learning and to prepare you for what to expect once you're out in the market itself (either paper trading or with real money). And if we have some fun along those lines, so much better. Alright... I've got a COHIBA Esplendido fired up, here's our plate of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies, the coffee's poured, so let's talk commodities!
money asks (6:17:53 PM):
!!!
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beavis asks (6:24:18 PM):
Louisville, KY here. Hi Ken, thanks for hosting this. I would like to bracket corn with put and call options. Since bidding half likely won't get both filled, what's the best way to buy them, just pay market price at my chosen strikes?
Hello beavis. Typically when we bracket a market, it's because that market is in a narrow, sideways channel. That means BOTH puts AND calls are cheap. Check it out . . . . Thanks!
punter asks (6:25:26 PM):
Hi Ken,Eurodollars just keeps going up and up. I think that puts between 94.00 and 96.00 one year out are total lay-ups. What do you think?
That's the way I see it too, punter. Price some closer-in strikes, however, before you make your decision to buy. Thanks.
NEIL asks (6:26:54 PM):
do you think the energy markets are topping out?
Yep. They may go higher still (on war news, etc.), but I think we're seeing the 50% retracement I talk about in the GAB Newsletter.
COLLEEN asks (6:28:03 PM):
Colleen from B.C. Canada Hi, I'm trying out your free trial online charts. I love the interactive feature, it works great even on my slow 28.8 modem. I just started trading for real in january and have not had any losses yet. I started with $2500 ($4000CA). I made $680 in march rice and got stopped out with $100. in march wheat. I just shorted may sugar. Ken, if I wanted to start in options would your new "Greatest American Business Course" be enough to get me going .Thanks,
Absolutely, Colleen. (But it sounds like you're doing great on your own!). Thanks . . . .
Daniel asks (6:28:34 PM):
Richfield, PA...Hey Ken! I made $1,130.00 in April Live Cattle. That was my first profitable trade with real money!! Thanks a lot to you and your willingness to teach us your method!!Daniel
Thank YOU, Daniel. Glad you were there to hear it! Thanks.
Simonfromoverthepond asks (6:29:17 PM):
Hi Ken,started trading last month with real money - up 1500 dollars on British Pound with my first trade. Your "Listen to me now, believe me later" has worked!!!
Alright, Simon! Way to go!
rl asks (6:33:15 PM):
Ken, I have the options course and have been through it but there is one thing I don't understand; when you want to liquidate an option who's premium has increased dramatically, how can you find a buyer? Who would be foolish enough to pay more for an option that the margin on a regular futures contract would be? Thanks for all you do here.
Great question, rl, and one all us option traders ask ourselves as we're cashing out of a big one. I have two examples of who would "be foolish enough to pay" those high prices: 1) A trader on the wrong side of the futures market locking in losses (!), and 2) A trader HEDGING against further losses on his physical or futures position in that market. One other interesting point about options to know: When the futures market is locked limit (up or down) and no one can enter or exit that market, you can still trade options! Thanks for joining us this evening.
Eric, Seattle WA asks (6:34:22 PM):
Did you ever meet Vernon Howard in person? What was he like?
Yes I did. I attended his classes in Boulder City, Nevada for several wonderful years. He was fearless (and you've probably never been in the presence of a fearless individual --- you can FEEL it). Thanks!
Sovereign Lady asks (6:35:55 PM):
I am a new Ken Roberts trader. I paper traded for 4 months and now have new money invested in 12 options in 9 different markets. I am patiently waiting for the markets to turn in my favor so I can begin seeing a positive balance in my trade tracker. I could use some encouragement.
Hello and welcome, Sovereign Lady. You'll receive lots of encouragement and insight on tonight's Chat, but one more thing: Just look at charts of the energy markets. If that's not inspiring, I'm in a coma! Thanks!
Stan from Roseburg asks (6:38:05 PM):
Hi Ken, I just completed both twmpmm 1&2 and did quite well with my paper trading. I'm in the process of getting set up with a broker and should be ready to go within a couple of weeks. Since I can only start with $1500 it seems to me that going with options only until I can build up my account would be the smart way to go. What do you think of this strategy? Thanks for everything.
Sounds sound to me, Stan! Go forth and price those options! Thanks.
soho50 asks (6:40:08 PM):
HI KEN-THANKS FOR ALL YOUR TIME AND SUPPORT. I'VE BEEN PRICING UP NOV CRUDE OIL 17 PUTS.DO YOU THINK ITS TO FAR OUT & ARE YOU CURRENTLY IN CRUDE PUTS? THANKS
Try pricing some closer in (from 28 and down), soho50. No, I'm not quite positioned in energy puts, but I'm shopping and watching . . . .
Mike from Atlantic asks (6:43:34 PM):
Hi, Ken March Natural Gas call option at 7 dollar strike wasworth $60 a few Thursdays back, 3 trading days later it sold for $26,600 !!!Someone actually paid $26,600 on the last day the option traded.That was the day March Nat. Gas went to 10...I Think this beats your famous coffee option ? (443 times your money in 3 days)Now I know why you say to let your options expire, Once in a blue moon you can win a pot of GOLD.Thanks 4 your help
Right on, Mike. (I was computing your option's %-age gain and then realized you'd already done it!) Yes, you're right. But my coffee option was worth $65,500 which still beats $26,600 . . . .
Stormie Normie asks (6:45:30 PM):
Thanks for all you do,you are tops at it. What is the proper teminology for asking a broker to sell a contract for you with a limit order?Is it an open order also? The very best to you and all your crew.
Thanks Stormie for the kind words. I appreciate them. "I want to sell XYZ at xxx price or better and make this an open (Good Til Cancelled) order." That's it! Thanks.
JoJo asks (6:47:11 PM):
Hi Ken. Looks as though 'war news' affects the technicals, or am I just looking at things wrong?
War news DOES move markets, but they still adhere to the technicals we study (50% retracements, support and resistance, etc.). So, yes, the energies just moved because of war news, but I was in them way before that news because my charts told me these markets were LOW. Good question. Thanks!
NYC asks (6:48:47 PM):
Do you ever feel a twinge of guilt when you make money when bad things happen? i.e. civil war in the Ivory Coast (cocoa market) or the crude oil market with the looming Iraq crisis? Just wonderingBrooklyn, NY
Not a bit, NYC. I bought cocoa (for example) because its price was way, way low. I had no idea what would be blamed for it's takeoff and rally. And ultimately, civil war in the Ivory Coast didn't move the market; supply and demand did. Great question. Thanks!
Rawhide asks (6:49:51 PM):
Hello from Utah, Ken. Any thoughts on the direction of live cattle? Will it continue down, or has it almost bottomed out?
I'm hanging on for more downward movement, Rawhide.
theFutureIsNow asks (6:51:21 PM):
hi ken i'm thinking of going short on june euro yen without a stop loss because of the current price of 99.93 is so close to 100.00.what do you think.The ken roberts co. is the best in delivering what it promisES!!!!!!!!!
Thanks FutureIsNow! That's wise thinking, but be prepared to roll a futures contract two, three, or more times (what I call "The Elvis Phenomenon" --- "caught in a trap..."). If this is too steep, consider options. Thanks!
kevon ok asks (6:53:19 PM):
Hi Ken! Its been a bit since I last logged on to your chat. I do read them later though. I think the Canadian dollar is a 'shorting' opportunity so I'm short the Canadian dollar at .6787 and have an open order to buy out (liquidate the position) at .6543. Your thoughts? This is a paper trade for now. Kevin O'Keefe
Longterm (based on its Monthly chart), I'm long the Canadian Dollar. But your short trade may work out just fine --- a 50% retracement along the way UP. Thanks!
Andrew Kim asks (6:54:57 PM):
What is your opinion on crude oil options as we expect the war coming with Iraq shortly? And how about the gold options and how do you play wisely on these market? And also how would you deal with the T-Bonds, Dollar Index, and Euro FX in this war time situation?
Hello, Andrew Kim. Good questions, but I'm going to refer you to your charts. Forget the news and trade the charts. (See upcoming GAB Newsletter which should arrive in your mailbox soon.) Thanks!
Rene asks (6:57:03 PM):
Ken,I tried to buy Sept. options in Natural Gas.My broker said they weren't taking limited positions.That you had to buy your strike price at market value. . . But you have to give carte blanche to your broker to buy at the strike price you want.QUESTION. . .Is this common? Can I get stuck in a volatile market, not being able to sell my option at a good price, If I have to get out of the market?
What you're describing, Rene, is a volatile market where the Exchange takes only "market orders" for the time being. Yes, you can get surprised big-time with market orders, so it's best to avoid them if possible. Many times, however, this is great news if you purchased your option(s) awhile back when no one was looking and get it/them CHEAP. Thanks!
Troy asks (6:57:34 PM):
Good Evening Ken and Gang. I'm contacting you from northern Alberta Canada. My question is where do you think gold will go this year, do you think it will climb up to 6-700 dollars per ounce or better? I have heard talk of such a move. Thankyou!
You didn't call Miss Cleo, did you Troy?
deskboy in miami asks (7:00:06 PM):
I bid too much ( in hindsight) for my first two Dec Eurodollar 9700 outs and I got filled quickly.My investmetn was araounf $500. Seeing how quickly the bid was was filled, I cut my next bid in half as you said and I even doubled the order to four puts. Three months later I am approaching getting filled again. I have plenty of time for interest rates to rise and the Eurodollar to fall. 9700 looks like the 50% retracement to me. My question is with a limited budget, shall I now move on to the next Contract coming on the horizon for March 2004??IS it OK for me to stick with the Eurodollar puts? I like the way the chart is just sitting there at all time highs for months on end. The big move will be big, don't you think. I would like to load up on Eurodollar puts while they are so cheap at the 50% mark, but now I have to move on to the next round. I am trying to do the OPIP as best as I can. What do you think of my strategery?
Yes, I agree the move will be big, deskboy in miami. The answer to your question is do what your budget allows. If you can afford two or three rounds of options in this one market only, then stick with just that market. Don't spread your budget thin. Thanks!
DavidinBoston asks (7:00:50 PM):
Ken, I know you don't have a crystal ball. . . but what the heck is going on with Coffee?
It ISN'T taking off, that's for sure (darnit)!
turbo7979 asks (7:01:33 PM):
I started TWMPMM 1 course back in october, opened an account in January. I have 1 trade in live cattle thats working for me, but I made a couple of trades that I've lost money on. I am starting to get discouraged. Do you have any words of wisdom you can share with me?
Hang in there. You KNOW the markets move, so the simple answer is to be there when they do!
Mama asks (7:03:02 PM):
Mama from Manitoba CanadaHow far out should a person go on eurodollar puts. Good chance of puts being effective if there's a war?
I'm not sure if you mean "far out" in time or strike price, Mama. Yes, Eurodollars is a great market to be pricing puts in now simply because they're at all-time highs. (It doesn't matter to me what will make them drop . . . .) Thanks!
CW from Norman, OK asks (7:04:35 PM):
Hello Ken and Crew! Coffee has pulled back about 50% from the move it made last October and hopefully is about to take off. Planning ahead for that move I notice the weekly is almost flat, what do you consider a good exit target on the weekly chart or will you look to the monthly chart only?
Weekly 50% target = 97.5. Then Monthly 50% target = 179. Go coffee, go!
Jim from Kalamazoo, asks (7:05:07 PM):
I cannot believe how high eurodollar has gone. Is this (and any other market for that matter) just an exercise in patience?
That's ALL trading is, Jim! (Aren't you glad we have 40-plus markets to trade?!)
jawga asks (7:06:46 PM):
Hi KenI am short 3 contracts in April Live cattle. Now I get to make a geat decision. . . when to take profits?? I am hitting 50% levels but we are still in level 4. Would you take profits after a limit down move (almost) or wait it out to level 2 or 1?
I'd cash out half my position at the Weekly 50% of 71, then hang on for a drop to Level 1. Thanks, Jawga!
moonpie asks (7:09:06 PM):
Hi Ken, does tovionline.com cover just options or does it also cover futures
ALL traders will love www.tovionline.com, moonpie! It has the greatest features you've ever seen! Take a tour and see for yourself. (Wait'll you see TOVI's "Market Ranking" feature that shows which markets TOVI determines is "due" for takeoff next . . . .)
Idaho Newbie asks (7:10:39 PM):
Am I correct in understanding a "pure" 50% is nice but not necessary in retracing a major move, but once you've drawn your 50% line, no part of the major move should recross that line? I have passed up options when the chart re-crosses by even .0001. Is this too conservative or is the .0001 enough to wreck the trade? So far with 9 options going on paper I am in the black, and I guess that is the answer but I was wondering about. . . how you handle these very minimal re-crosses?
I think this will help, Idaho: Forget "pure" 50% retracements and take the largest 50% target the price chart allows. Hope this answers your question. Thanks.
pep asks (7:11:22 PM):
ken, i am having trouble getting filled in a further out coffee calls and the month of may is going to expire, leaving me out of the market. i've already bid up to my last available penny, any suggestion?
Yes, pep, go farther out in time and bid another option in that contract month. Patience . . . .
SouthernIllinois asks (7:13:12 PM):
Ken, Thanks a million (no pun intended) for all that you do, you life-changer, you! I have traded commodities for three years now, and my trades are mostly long term and mostly negative due to the markets that I have been in long term (Eurodollar short all the way up, and Coffee). I've only recently got down on myself emotionally about the fact that I could have made good money selling widgets instead of investing long term and riding out the losses. And of course there is the fear that someday I won't have the money to stay in my positions despite my long patience. Could this mean that the Eurodollar topped and coffee bottomed? Or am I just a whiner?
Well, we ALL whine a bit, SouthernIllinois, so don't feel badly. And, yes, I'd say that right about now is when Eurodollars and/or Coffee will begin moving. (If you want to INSURE that Eurodollars and/or Coffee begin moving, get out of the market!) Thanks!
Carribean Craig asks (7:14:41 PM):
Hi Ken, I saw on the news about the big fire in Grants Pass (Wow national news). Want to thank you again for a new way of life, up over $100,000 in a year in cashed out profits.
Thanks, Carribean Craig! Yes, it was a slow news day in America for Grants Pass to show up. Surprised me, too. (Are you watching The O'Reilly Factor on Fox News Channel?)
Dalene asks (7:16:07 PM):
Dalene from S.C. here. Tomorrow I start trading with real money. I paper traded 4 months. I've had U. S. Chart Co. on line for a while. I'm starting with a very small nest egg so I'll only do options at first. How do Sept. Euro Fx 9700 put, June Dollar Index 105 call, and Dec. Euro Dollar 9800 put sound. I, of course want to make the mostest with the leastest. Thank you for introducing me the this fun and facinating business, Ken.
Thanks, Dalene. Go get 'em! Your plans sound great to me. But don't pay their asking price --- place those (low) bids and let them sit there! Thanks!
jawga asks (7:16:40 PM):
KenAs a VIP member I can only thank you for your and the "staffs" help. You make me feel like a member of the family. As a semi retired worker from Telecom I feel confident that we will be permanantly retired in no time. Thanks
Thanks, jawga!
CW from Norman, OK asks (7:24:43 PM):
Hello Ken and Crew! I wanted to share my experience with a couple of my trading accounts. About a year ago someone asked if $5000 was enough to start an account. As an experiment I opened a $5000 and a $25,000 account. A little less than a year later the $5000 is worth almost $25,000 and the $25,000 account is now worth about $110,000. These are not great returns but it beats a CD at the bank!
They sound like great returns to me, CW. (Have you thought of going into the money-management business?!) Thanks!
Canucktrader asks (7:26:22 PM):
Hello from Beautiful BC Canada, I've heard a lot about the GAB course, where do I get more info, price etc. I've been out of trading for a while but still watching the markets, hope to get back into the swing of things soon. Thanks
Just call a Course Counselor at 541-955-2700 (8:30am - 5:pm Pacific Time). Thanks!
LezzyD asks (7:27:01 PM):
Ken, technically speaking I believe Coffee will take off before August -- in a big way. All my indicators point to this. What do you think?
Thank you, Miss Cleo!
CW from Norman, OK asks (7:27:46 PM):
Ken, do you think the retracement in Wheat has bottomed out?
I think so, CW. See all that support on its front-month chart?
KB9UHL asks (7:33:29 PM):
Howdy Ken & Traders,Any plans to add milk to US Charts Company?
No, that would be udder nonsense, KB9UHL. The ink would run and that market pails in comparison to others. It expires way too quickly (unless refrigerated). The options would be illiquid. It's a sour idea (not to mention a cheesy one). Most subscribers would simply skim over it and that would make my blood curdle. Then again, it would probably be a half-and-half market where only every other trader was interested. But, if you butter me up, I might reconsider and you can milk this market for all its worth.
trw trader asks (7:33:53 PM):
How long have you had the Great American Business course?
We just launched it this past January!
dennis asks (7:35:00 PM):
Hello Ken...what about specializing, that is, for example, trading call options in only one market like say coffee? Or, the one eyed dog in a butcher shop approach of buying options in a lot of markets when it makes sense. Can you give your viewpoint on that? Thanks!
Yes, dennis. Not having all your eggs in one basket is wise. But you must always consider your budget first. --- Confucious
MsCoffee asks (7:35:49 PM):
Ken, The newest list of Billionaires came out recently and I noticed that a few listed Commodities as their source. Is that exciting or what?
Yes! (And you never even heard of those individuals, did you?) If you made billions in stocks (like Warren Buffet), you'd be on the cover of magazines. Thanks!
cwstahl asks (7:38:57 PM):
Chuck from Cincinnati, Ohio. I have only taken TWMPMM I. I am up in paper trading, however, do not know a thing about options. I understand they are less risk and can be used to offset a market move against you. Do you think it is wise to begin with real money only doing futures contracts without options?? Nervous and excited as ....Thanks.
No, Chuck, I'd hold off just a little while longer and familiarize yourself with options. Try the "Fishing With Options" strategy taught in TWMPMM I. Trust me . . . .
tradwinz asks (7:39:57 PM):
Hey Ken Can you in a few short lines explain what the new G.A.B. course is and how it can help me be a better trader.Thanks, Tradwinz NYC
Well, if you're on that Billionaires list we just mentioned, GAB can't help you at all. But if you're not, check it out for its simple, basic market wisdom and technique(s). Thanks!
Rawhide asks (7:40:30 PM):
You really ought to have a webcam, so we can see you pondering all of these questions, smoking cigars, and otherwise holding forth with pearls of wisdom for our education.
It would be a sight, Rawhide. (Hey --- a new reality TV show?)
Bonita Joe asks (7:41:17 PM):
ken - Since May Sugar is at a daily top, but at, or close to, the weekly 50%, is it making a decision which way to go.......it is something to behold how the 50% retracements have an affect! Got your tree, by the way! Thanks - Bonita Joe
Thanks Bonita Joe! Yes, sugar's stalling, but stick to those 50's!
Survivor asks (7:43:06 PM):
Hi Ken, I'm from central Alberta, Canada. I took the twmpmm1 course (loved it!) but I would like to learn more about options and papertrade futures since I have been out of it for quite a few months. Would you recommend the new GAB course? Or would you recommend Twmpmm 2? Thanks for the chat line it gets me excited to get back into this!!
Either way, Survivor (or just practice the Fishing With Options from your T1 Course). Glad you're back!
Mark asks (7:43:42 PM):
How about the US dollar index and it's direction for the next few months, any ideas?
I'm looking to the long side, Mark. Thanks!
Wayne asks (7:45:08 PM):
Hi Ken. I'm new to real money trading and don't know what this level 1 and level 4 stuff is your talking about! You mentioned before that on cattle you were expecting one more move down. Are you looking at a move down to the support around .7150? Near the beginning of Sept and Oct of last year as your profit target for that move?
No, that first move down, Wayne, is Live Cattle's Weekly 50% target of 71. Thanks!
philly dana asks (7:45:55 PM):
Mr. Hollywood,when an option expires worthless,what happens to the premium that I paid? Nobody bought it. I didn't sell it. Where did that money go? Who pockets it?
YOU bought it, philly dana, so whomever sold it to you pockets the money. Neat, huh?
wfks asks (7:47:24 PM):
How come I can't put in a GTC order for Dec Coffee 175 calls ?
The New York Exchange where the Coffee trading is was destroyed in the 9/11 attack. It now trades from a "temporary" location and nothing's been the same since 9/11. We just have to bear with them . . . .
tradwinz asks (7:48:43 PM):
Hi Ken,Do you have any experience trading CME milk futures and or options, if so any comments. (it's pretty low right now)Thanks, Tradwinz NYC
Sure, tradwinz. Instead of spreads, I trade Milk squeezes!
Carribean Craig asks (7:49:35 PM):
I believe it was on the O'Reilly Factor I saw the Grants Pass news, usually catch it nightly. Is Lumber looking good again or are you board with it ?
I love your question, Carribean Craig, but we've depleted our brains thinking up puns tonight. Got milk?
ronsyl asks (7:50:12 PM):
Ronsyl From FloridaKen is it possible to LIST the books @ tapes that Four Star Book carry. @ List it on the PC. So We can see what they are selling
Sure, ronsyl. Try www.fourstarbooks.com!
shoeless joe asks (7:51:16 PM):
I have open orders for nov. lumber 310 calls for 180 points. How does this sound?
Perfect, shoeless joe, you bid half and that's how I do it!
Ron in Medford asks (7:52:57 PM):
Hello, Ken! Since I live only 30 minutes away from your office, can I come up sometime and hang out with you guys while you do this monthly chat? I want to see if it's really you! Keep up the great work you're doing for us course members. Thanks!
Thanks, Ron! Sure, come on up! (But you're going to be disappointed: I'm really just a brain in a jar with two electrodes coming from it and leading into a computer. They do put a cowboy hat on top, and stick a cigar under the lid, however.)
OR Bound asks (7:53:38 PM):
Hey, SOUTHERNILLINOIS! I am right there with you, I am in exactly the same boat...Three years and feeling like I'm the only one not making a profit. But I do hate to miss a party & that's exactly what it'll be if we get out! Thank goodness for the simple words of wisdom from you, Ken. It keeps folks like us hanging in there. Coffee will rise & Eurodollars will fall and when that happens, who cares what Corn does!!! Thanks Ken, I'll be up in Medford again in April.
Great, OR Bound! Looking forward to seeing you.
tree asks (7:54:17 PM):
Ken, to go along with the last question - How long do you wait to get in the market if your bid for 50% of an option's price is not filled? Do you ever decide to pay the full price for an option so that you will be able to enter a market?
Rarely, tree. Honest. (Don't chase any market!)
Ninja asks (7:55:42 PM):
HI KenRecently took some profits in gold&cattle futures and crude oil callsand now I would like to put some money in the coffee market. With prices so low I am inclined to enter a futures contract but the safety of options is a consideration. What month and strike would youtrade for coffee calls? THANKS TO ALL OF YOU @ K.R.C.
Thanks, Ninja. Start with pricing the Dec. 150 Coffee calls . . . .
LezzyD asks (7:56:11 PM):
Ken: I recently bought some options in Coffee in the Sept contract that have just started to slowly make money. Even though Coffee hasn't started its move up yet should I liquidate now to cover my losses and get my money back.
Not if you'd then be OUT of the Coffee market, LezzyD.
Tom asks (7:56:50 PM):
Hi Ken,I was just wandering do you remove the plastic from your cigars before you put them in your humidor? Also thank you very much for all you do thank you!!!
Yes, Tom. Cigars won't begin aging until you remove that celophane. Smoke on!
chief asks (7:57:47 PM):
Hi Ken, thank you for your patience. Ken, after re-reading Market Wizards (a recommended FOUR STAR BOOK) a thought came to mind. as you have always said use my experiance and knowledge because I know what your going through. My thought was when the traders form MArket Wizards speak of the large positions (like you trade) how is that different from the small 1 or 2 contract positions that I trade Psychologically speaking that is?
It's the same, chief. That's why I always say if you can't make profits with $5,000 you won't make them with $50,000. Everything's relative. Thanks!
sky asks (7:58:17 PM):
Virginia Beach, VA: Hi Ken, I just wanted to thank you for a new life. I took the Rich Man's Secret Course about 2 years ago AND it changed my life. Now the Worlds Greatest Business really is the greatest. I recently quit teaching high school (ultra stress) and now I trade and spend all day with the family. Thanks Sooo much!
Alright, sky! Good for you! And thanks!
henry asks (7:59:02 PM):
Hi Ken:Well Ken I'm finally doing it since I bought your twampam coarse 1 I got into the cocoa market and didn't last to long I set my stop to short and got stopped out within an hour. Doing better with the Canadian dollar so far profits are 650.00 dollars. How do you see this market. Ken, thank you for turning my wife Lisa and I to this great venture. Henry Martinez
Thank YOU, Henry. I'm long the Canadian Dollar (check out its Monthly chart).
Pat asks (7:59:57 PM):
Pat from CA - I love the commodities, but get so frustrated sometimes. I felt like I knew that Live Cattle was going to drop so I bid half on puts, but the market dropped while I was waiting to be filled. When is it better to go with the current price rather than waiting to be filled? And how can you tell? Thanks for everything!
Always WAIT, Pat. You did the right thing. You may have missed this market this time, but over the long haul, waiting will pay off. (Don't chase moving busses.)
Idaho Newbie asks (8:00:27 PM):
You said to have faith in the charts. Just wanted to let you know I am taking heat from friends for call options on the U.S. Dollar Index. That's what the chart says to do. If the chart wins over the possibility of war and the DOW and NASDEQ tanking, I would say the 50% retracement strategy rocks! I'm hanging in there and I do believe it is going to pay off.
Good for you, Idaho Newbie. So am I . . . .
thefutureisnow asks (8:01:01 PM):
Hey ken i was at a bar and i started a conversation with some ladies in the room and i start talking about stochastic and fibbonaci indicators and WOW it worked. thanks alot kenny!
See?! I wasn't kidding, was I? Listen to me now, believe me later . . . .
Pat asks (8:01:44 PM):
Pat from CA - I know you say that one person can't influence the market, but I'd swear I can. Doesn't matter whether I'm paper trading or real money - I get in and the market goes screaming the opposite direction. What's up with that? What am I doing wrong? Would love any advice you can give me. Thanks a mil!
It happens to ALL of us, Pat! Keep at it. You're doing just right . . . .
Rawhide asks (8:02:17 PM):
PUH-leeze! The milk puns make my stomach churn!
Sorry, Rawhide. (Maybe you're lactose intolerant . . . .)
Nova Scotia Scott asks (8:02:52 PM):
LOL!!! You got the question you were waiting for [MILK]. You really crack me up Ken:)
Yes we did, Nova Scotia, and then milked it for all it was worth . . . .
hula girl asks (8:03:39 PM):
Ken- just wanted to say "Mahalo"(thanks) for the course, the chat room and MY future. When you get discouraged -to read of others success and know it works is a great moral booster until your own success is acheived. And when you read about mistakes, you sit and shake your head knowing how they feel cause " I've been there too"- just makes us a big family. Can't wait to find out more about the newest courses. Been down and up again for 4 years, can't imagine what life would be without trading!
Alright. Thank you, hula girl. Wise words . . . .
israel asks (8:04:49 PM):
Hello Ken. Do you ever sell options, and then with the premium collected, buy farther out options for yourself? If not, is this a safe strategy to use? Thanks!
No, Israel, I never sell options because that involves UNlimited risk (just like a futures contract). You haven't been listening to some broker, have you?
VictorRvZu asks (8:05:28 PM):
Thanks for that ( TOO-VEE )site. I just got off and can't wait to call the counselors. Tell me though... do you have Don Rickles there to answer yer questions?
No, Victor, but what a compliment! Thanks! (Don't you love TOVI???!!!)
TahoeClay asks (8:07:03 PM):
Hi Ken and Crew: I just got back from your neck of the continent, actually made it to Ruch and Jacksonville.... nice back roads!! Anyway, I just wanted to share that more and more I am using options to Stay the market, ie, coffee, eurodollars, and now trying to get filled in some DJIA calls. And what I know now, is that playing a contract or two can really limit the cash reserves I have. Example the July'03 coffee that I have long from 66.50: when it is down like now, I realize how many cheap (about $100.00)call options I could be buying if I didn't have my money tied into my margin and maintenance, and the money that I am down in the futures contract. Anyway I am learning some good lessons..... Real men use options to stay the markets!!
Great wisdom, TahoeClay. (And wait'll you see how TOVI picks those options for you . . . .)
option hunter asks (8:07:31 PM):
Hello Ken, I can't imagine anything that gives more value than your options course. The learning guage I received is in outer space! Thank You.
Thanks, Option Hunter, but wait'll you see TOVI . . . . (You're gonna flip!)
CamaroGuy asks (8:08:23 PM):
I want to thank you for these chats. You and everyone else that writes in are my inspiration. You all give me different viewpoints and insight.
Thanks CamaroGuy. As Hula Girl said, "We're all a big family . . . ." (Hey, who's she calling big?)
Guamanian asks (8:09:00 PM):
Hey Ken,I'm not a member now, even though back in 1990 or 91 my dad and I bought TWMPMM I and II. I know there's probably a lot of people typing away wanting to know all kinds of stuff in regards to commodities. I just wanted to say thanks for your giving attitude and your courses and I'm looking forward to next months chat!
You're welcome, Guamanian! Thanks for joining us this evening.
chadwick asks (8:09:32 PM):
I have been trading Gold for the last year and have done quite well. Gold looks as though it is in a nice consolidation range between 345 -355 an ounce. I know the monthly target level on Gold is around $550 an ounce, but how do view the chart on gold now? Thanks!
The same way, Chadwick! Go, gold, go!
branchodeluxe asks (8:11:28 PM):
heykenwhendooptionstypicallyrunoutoftimepremiummyspacebardoesntwork
Typically, options are thought to run out of time premium during their final month before expiration. But TOVI shows us that this can (and often does) happen even 60 to 90 days prior to expiration. This is just another great feature TOVI provides: Notification that your option is over-accelerating in time decay!
chief asks (8:12:00 PM):
Hi Ken This time you spend with us is incredible. Thank You VERY MUCH I can't wait to thank you in person when I finally get out to Grants Pass. Four Star Books is the same as that Twenty thousand (plus) dollar option from earlier just depends on how you are looking at things. Thanks Again
Right on, chief. Thanks!
Braveheart423 asks (8:13:59 PM):
Hi from Mississippi Ken...what do you get from pampered cows?....spoiled milk...and i think i've been using some in my coffee lately. Have you got Miss Cleo's new number?
Thanks, Braveheart423. How's that andouille sausage and red beans and rice down there in the deep South?! I think Miss Cleo's new number is sewn on the back of her prison jumpsuit.
new trader asks (8:15:01 PM):
New Trader from MN, Ken Thanks for all your info. I recieved one of your mailers back in 1995. I am now finally trading for real. Starting to make some profits. Thanks again.
Glad you're with us, New Trader. Thanks!
Colt Smokin Coffeetr asks (8:16:44 PM):
with all of this talk about milk I'm starting to whey in on my options
Good one, Colt. We missed that one completely --- but you condensed it into one great pun. You powdered us!
bonedoc asks (8:17:16 PM):
Will interest rates in Japan rise during our lifetime? (Any tips on being patient?) When the euroyen falls, is it more likely to fall a long ways because it has been an extreme market for so long?
Yes. (Be patient). Yes. Thanks!
CamaroGuy asks (8:17:23 PM):
Who is Don Rickles?
!
Flyer asks (8:17:48 PM):
Flyer:Don Rickles, Miss Cleo and a jar full of brains wearing a cowboy hat all in the same room in one night! What an image. Good night from Montana. Thanks Ken
You're right, Flyer. It's not a pretty picture . . . .
chief asks (8:18:16 PM):
Wow...Ken I can see what Pat is saying ... Get in and the Market screams in the opposite direction. If it helps any that is why I continue relentlessly paper trading even though I also trade with real money too...
Good goin', Chief. And that's also why you should look into options.
thetimman asks (8:18:30 PM):
Yes -- I second the motion, Tahoeclay. A futures position that turns against you (for me, Eurodollars) ties up money that could be used to buy options!
!
Well that's it for another month. Here are my favorite web sites if you're interested: www.tovionline.com (brand new!!!) ; www.uschartco.com ; www.fourstarbooks.com. ; www.historictrees.org. ; www.foxnews.com/oreilly; www.wildlifeimages.org; www.LP.org.My next chat will be Tuesday, April 8th. Also remember Matt's stock and commodity chat next Tuesday, March 18th. As always: Use these newfound powers only for Good. Good night!
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